# From Answers to Interpretations: Rethinking Ambiguity-Induced Aleatoric Uncertainty Estimation in LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04543 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04543/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 13 of its 46 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Sep 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Quantifying Language Models' Sensitivity to Spurious Features in Prompt Design or: How I learned to start worrying about prompt formatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11324/) (2023)
- [To Believe or Not to Believe Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02543/) (2024)
- [Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08718/) (2023)
- [ConvAI3: Generating Clarifying Questions for Open-Domain Dialogue Systems (ClariQ)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11352/) (2020)
- [Distinguishing the Knowable from the Unknowable with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03563/) (2024)
- [AMBROSIA: A Benchmark for Parsing Ambiguous Questions into Database Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.19073/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation in Autoregressive Structured Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07650/) (2020)
- [Fine-Grained Uncertainty Decomposition in Large Language Models: A Spectral Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22272/) (2025)
- [Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Beyond Probabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.05848/) (2023)
- [Verbalizing LLM's Higher-order Uncertainty via Imprecise Probabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10396/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A key challenge in reliable LLM deployment is recognizing when uncertainty reflects irreducible variability in the task rather than limitations in the model's knowledge. In language tasks, a central source of such aleatoric uncertainty is input ambiguity or underspecification, where multiple interpretations remain plausible. Existing decomposition methods estimate aleatoric uncertainty by generating multiple clarifications of the input, querying the model for an answer under each clarification, and comparing the resulting answers. We argue that answers are not necessary for identifying ambiguity: they are often redundant, add avoidable cost, and can mislead through epistemic leakage. We support this claim theoretically, and propose a clarification-only approach that estimates this ambiguity-induced component directly from the space of plausible interpretations, without answers to the clarified inputs. Using ambiguity detection as an operational evaluation across three benchmarks, this direct approach improves AUROC (63.34 vs. 60.85), reduces computational cost by 4-26x in output tokens and 2.2-3.5x in API calls, and yields estimates with substantially lower correlation with epistemic uncertainty. Overall, our results suggest that ambiguity-induced aleatoric uncertainty is better estimated from the interpretation space than from the response space.