# What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.02013 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.02013/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 150 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22291/) (2025)
- [Treatment Allocation under Uncertain Costs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11066/) (2021)
- [Qini Curves for Multi-Armed Treatment Rules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11979/) (2023)
- [(Machine) Learning What Policies Value](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00727/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study poverty minimization via direct transfers, framing this as a statistical learning problem while retaining the information constraints faced by real-world programs. Using nationally representative household consumption surveys from 34 countries that together account for 76% of the world's poor, we estimate that reducing the poverty rate to 1% (from a baseline of 13%) would cost 211 B nominal per year. This is 4.0 times the corresponding reduction in the aggregate poverty gap, but only 19% of the cost of universal basic income. Extrapolated globally, the results imply a cost of 0.28% of global GDP to (approximately) end extreme poverty.