# Benchmarking Language Models for Statistical Problem Formulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01982 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.01982/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [DeepSeek-V4: Towards Highly Efficient Million-Token Context Intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19348/) (2026)
- [ScienceAgentBench: Toward Rigorous Assessment of Language Agents for Data-Driven Scientific Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05080/) (2024)
- [NL4Opt Competition: Formulating Optimization Problems Based on Their Natural Language Descriptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08233/) (2023)
- [DSBench: How Far Are Data Science Agents from Becoming Data Science Experts?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.07703/) (2024)
- [ORLM: A Customizable Framework in Training Large Models for Automated Optimization Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17743/) (2024)
- [LLMOPT: Learning to Define and Solve General Optimization Problems from Scratch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13213/) (2024)
- [BLADE: Benchmarking Language Model Agents for Data-Driven Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.09667/) (2024)
- [MedCalc-Bench: Evaluating Large Language Models for Medical Calculations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12036/) (2024)
- [OptiBench Meets ReSocratic: Measure and Improve LLMs for Optimization Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.09887/) (2024)
- [Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17644/) (2024)
- [DataSciBench: An LLM Agent Benchmark for Data Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13897/) (2025)
- [LMR-BENCH: Evaluating LLM Agent's Ability on Reproducing Language Modeling Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.17335/) (2025)
- [Are Large Language Models Good Statisticians?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.07815/) (2024)
- [MM-Agent: LLM as Agents for Real-world Mathematical Modeling Problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14148/) (2025)
- [From Scores to Steps: Diagnosing and Improving LLM Performance in Evidence-Based Medical Calculations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.16584/) (2025)
- [StatEval: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Large Language Models in Statistics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09517/) (2025)
- [ClimateViz: A Benchmark for Statistical Reasoning and Fact Verification on Scientific Charts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08700/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as assistants for statistical and data science work, yet existing evaluations largely assume the analysis target is already specified. In practice, users arrive with informal goals and heterogeneous data, leaving the model to decide what statistical task is implied and which data are relevant. We first formalize this upstream step as Statistical Problem Formulation and decompose it into two subtasks: (1) Statistical Problem Classification and (2) Variable Identification & Role Assignment. We then introduce StatFormBench, a benchmark built from five cross-domain statistics textbooks and a data science case library, covering diverse problem types, data representations, and scenario styles. It contains 1,013 samples spanning 20 coarse-grained and 85 fine-grained statistical problem categories. Across 14 open- and closed-source LLMs, the best zero-shot models reach only 72.0 fine-grained classification accuracy and 63.2 variable set overlap. No model performs consistently best across the two subtasks, while enhanced prompting strategies yield only limited or inconsistent gains. We release the benchmark data on Hugging Face at https://huggingface.co/datasets/THU-CongLab/StatFormBench and the evaluation code on GitHub at https://github.com/THU-CongLab/StatFormBench.