# OutageDiT: A Generative Foundation Model for Power Outage Forecasting and Scenario Simulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01896 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.01896/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [RoFormer: Enhanced Transformer with Rotary Position Embedding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09864/) (2021)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [SiT: Exploring Flow and Diffusion-based Generative Models with Scalable Interpolant Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.08740/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1402.5481/) (2014)
- [Distributionally Robust Optimization via Iterative Algorithms in Continuous Probability Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.20556/) (2024)
- [Worst-case generation via minimax optimization in Wasserstein space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08176/) (2025)
- [Generative models for decision-making under distributional shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.04342/) (2026)
- [SARIMAX-Based Power Outage Prediction During Extreme Weather Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.01017/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Power-outage planning requires scenarios before an event occurs. These scenarios must represent uncertainty in magnitude, timing, and duration while preserving temporal dependence. However, severe events are rare, and data from any single region contain few examples of extreme outage and restoration patterns. To address this challenge, we introduce OutageDiT, a foundation model for generating seven-day outage trajectories at quarter-hour resolution, trained on outage and weather records across the United States. Specifically, a condition encoder processes the historical context and known future covariates once per forecast, and a shallow flow decoder reuses the resulting horizon-aligned states to generate complete trajectories. The resulting samples support point forecasting, uncertainty quantification, and conditional event simulation within one deep generative model. Across outage forecasting benchmarks, OutageDiT improves forecast accuracy and scenario quality over strong baselines and supports zero-shot transfer to held-out regions. Together, these results position conditional outage simulation as a bridge from outage forecasting to operational planning under uncertainty.