# Let Confidence Change, Not the Prediction: Prediction-Preserving Repair for Post-hoc Calibration

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.01072 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.01072/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 26 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 26 of 26)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [MobileNetV2: Inverted Residuals and Linear Bottlenecks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.04381/) (2018)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [ShuffleNet V2: Practical Guidelines for Efficient CNN Architecture Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.11164/) (2018)
- [RepVGG: Making VGG-style ConvNets Great Again](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03697/) (2021)
- [Beyond temperature scaling: Obtaining well-calibrated multiclass probabilities with Dirichlet calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12656/) (2019)
- [Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07329/) (2020)
- [Mitigating Bias in Calibration Error Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.08668/) (2020)
- [Intra Order-preserving Functions for Calibration of Multi-Class Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06820/) (2020)
- [Smooth ECE: Principled Reliability Diagrams via Kernel Smoothing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12236/) (2023)
- [Parameterized Temperature Scaling for Boosting the Expressive Power in Post-Hoc Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.12182/) (2021)
- [Sample-dependent Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Improved Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.06211/) (2022)
- [Top-label calibration and multiclass-to-binary reductions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.08353/) (2021)
- [Meta-Cal: Well-controlled Post-hoc Calibration by Ranking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04290/) (2021)
- [Improving Uncertainty Calibration of Deep Neural Networks via Truth Discovery and Geometric Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.14662/) (2021)
- [Confidence Calibration of Classifiers with Many Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.02988/) (2024)
- [Structured Matrix Scaling for Multi-Class Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.03685/) (2025)
- [Class-wise and reduced calibration methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03702/) (2022)
- [Accuracy-Preserving Calibration via Statistical Modeling on Probability Simplex](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13765/) (2024)
- [Quantile Adaptive Temperature Scaling for Confidence Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.21749/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Post-hoc calibration corrects reported confidence, yet a multiclass calibrator can also change the associated top-1 prediction. Accuracy captures only the net effect of these changes on correctness, not how often predictions change; the Top-1 Prediction Change Rate (TPCR) instead measures this frequency. We propose Calibrator-Output Repair for Top-1 Decision Preservation (CORD), the first post-fit adapter to impose exact prediction preservation by repairing the full calibrated probability vector. From the original and calibrated outputs alone, CORD determines the mass assigned to the original top-1. The calibrated conditional distribution allocates the remaining mass over the other classes, yielding a repaired vector whose own argmax recovers the original prediction. On the calibration split, CORD coordinates the repaired masses to retain the calibrated outputs' mean mass on original predictions whenever attainable. The adapter alters neither the fitted calibrator nor its direct output, fits no additional supervised map, and requires no user- or validation-tuned hyperparameter. Across CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet-1K, CORD attains zero TPCR by construction and lowers mean ECE, NLL, and Brier relative to the corresponding direct outputs in every dataset; paired gains persist under distribution shift and across calibration-set sizes. CORD thus removes the preservation constraint from calibrator fitting and assigns exact recovery of the original decision to subsequent output repair. Our code is available at https://github.com/labhai/CORD.