# Verdict Instability of OOD Scores under Reference Resampling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00691 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00691/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 29 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Sep 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Emerging Properties in Self-Supervised Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14294/) (2021)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Describing Textures in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.3618/) (2013)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [LSUN: Construction of a Large-scale Image Dataset using Deep Learning with Humans in the Loop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03365/) (2015)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Nearest Neighbors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06507/) (2022)
- [Scaling Out-of-Distribution Detection for Real-World Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11132/) (2019)
- [ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10807/) (2022)
- [Exploring the Limits of Out-of-Distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03004/) (2021)
- [Characterizing Adversarial Subspaces Using Local Intrinsic Dimensionality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.02613/) (2018)
- [OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07242/) (2022)
- [A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09022/) (2021)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [TurkerGaze: Crowdsourcing Saliency with Webcam based Eye Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.06755/) (2015)
- [In or Out? Fixing ImageNet Out-of-Distribution Detection Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00826/) (2023)
- [Bias-Reduced Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Neural Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.08206/) (2018)
- [Is Out-of-Distribution Detection Learnable?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.14707/) (2022)
- [Mahalanobis++: Improving OOD Detection via Feature Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18032/) (2025)
- [Know Your Limits: Uncertainty Estimation with ReLU Classifiers Fails at Reliable OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.05329/) (2020)
- [A Geometry-Based View of Mahalanobis OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15202/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Post-hoc out-of-distribution detectors are fitted on a finite reference set, so every score they produce is an estimate. If we had chosen a different set, some verdicts would have moved. We measure that movement by resampling the reference set and recording the bootstrap standard deviation of the score, which we call verdict instability. It admits a closed form with no fitted parameters. The instability of a verdict is the within-class dispersion of the assigned class along the query's direction, divided by the square root of that class's reference count. That count is what separates verdict instability from the geometry of the score distribution, and it is identifiable only under class imbalance. Instability grows with the local dispersion. Far-OOD queries lie along the low-variance directions of an anisotropic embedding, so every distance-based score we test assigns its highest values to the verdicts that are most reproducible. Only estimators of local dispersion carry the sign a practitioner expects. We give a rule that predicts this sign for any score from a single label-free correlation, and abstention driven by a wrong-signed score turns out worse than abstention at random on every dataset we test.