# CoLT-Drive: Counterfactual Long-Tail Benchmarking and Knowledge-Preserving Adaptation for Driving Affordance Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.00242 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.00242/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning VLA and VLM driving policies, one of 9 directions in End-to-end autonomous driving.
- Builds on 40 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- End-to-end autonomous driving / [Reasoning VLA and VLM driving policies](https://mlsanity.com/driving/reasoning-vla-and-vlm-driving-policies/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 40)

- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15818/) (2023)
- [OpenVLA: An Open-Source Vision-Language-Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09246/) (2024)
- [Learning without Forgetting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09282/) (2016)
- [Do As I Can, Not As I Say: Grounding Language in Robotic Affordances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01691/) (2022)
- [Model soups: averaging weights of multiple fine-tuned models improves accuracy without increasing inference time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05482/) (2022)
- [TIES-Merging: Resolving Interference When Merging Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01708/) (2023)
- [Robust fine-tuning of zero-shot models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01903/) (2021)
- [Language Models are Super Mario: Absorbing Abilities from Homologous Models as a Free Lunch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03099/) (2023)
- [NuPlan: A closed-loop ML-based planning benchmark for autonomous vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11810/) (2021)
- [NAVSIM: Data-Driven Non-Reactive Autonomous Vehicle Simulation and Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15349/) (2024)
- [LoRA Learns Less and Forgets Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09673/) (2024)
- [VeRA: Vector-based Random Matrix Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11454/) (2023)
- [AutoVLA: A Vision-Language-Action Model for End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Adaptive Reasoning and Reinforcement Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13757/) (2025)
- [DriveMLM: Aligning Multi-Modal Large Language Models with Behavioral Planning States for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09245/) (2023)
- [MixLoRA: Enhancing Large Language Models Fine-Tuning with LoRA-based Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15159/) (2024)
- [OmniDrive: A Holistic Vision-Language Dataset for Autonomous Driving with Counterfactual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04348/) (2025)
- [Reason2Drive: Towards Interpretable and Chain-based Reasoning for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03661/) (2023)
- [Are VLMs Ready for Autonomous Driving? An Empirical Study from the Reliability, Data, and Metric Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.04003/) (2025)
- [AlphaDrive: Unleashing the Power of VLMs in Autonomous Driving via Reinforcement Learning and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07608/) (2025)
- [ChatScene: Knowledge-Enabled Safety-Critical Scenario Generation for Autonomous Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14062/) (2024)
- [LoRAMoE: Alleviate World Knowledge Forgetting in Large Language Models via MoE-Style Plugin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09979/) (2023)
- [Automated Evaluation of Large Vision-Language Models on Self-driving Corner Cases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10595/) (2024)
- [DriveCoT: Integrating Chain-of-Thought Reasoning with End-to-End Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.16996/) (2024)
- [Lifelong Language Pretraining with Distribution-Specialized Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12281/) (2023)
- [Tokenize the World into Object-level Knowledge to Address Long-tail Events in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00959/) (2024)
- [Can Vehicle Motion Planning Generalize to Realistic Long-tail Scenarios?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.07569/) (2024)
- [Drive-R1: Bridging Reasoning and Planning in VLMs for Autonomous Driving with Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18234/) (2025)
- [DriveLMM-o1: A Step-by-Step Reasoning Dataset and Large Multimodal Model for Driving Scenario Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.10621/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Forgetting during Finetuning with Pretraining Data Injection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06042/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Long-tail autonomous driving failures are often framed as rare-object recognition errors. We argue that this view is incomplete: the decision-critical question is not only whether a model recognizes an unusual object, but whether it infers how that object changes the ego vehicle's feasible high-level actions. We formalize this problem as decision-level driving affordance prediction, where a model maps a front-view image, ego-motion history, and navigation command to a structured longitudinal--lateral meta-action. To evaluate this capability, we introduce CoLT-Drive, a 3,536-sample counterfactual long-tail benchmark that inserts rare objects into otherwise fixed driving scenes and measures whether models predict acceptable action pairs. To improve deployable small VLMs, we propose KPA, a knowledge-preserving adaptation framework that combines structured perception-to-decision prompting, SLERP-based expert merging, and RegMoE, a regime-aware LoRA mixture-of-experts module. KPA preserves the pretrained model's open-world knowledge while allocating lightweight adaptation capacity to different driving decision regimes. Experiments on an in-domain driving split and CoLT-Drive show that KPA achieves 60.8% pair accuracy on CoLT-Drive, outperforming the pretrained Qwen3-VL-2B baseline (50.3%) and LoRA SFT (32.4%) while maintaining competitive in-domain accuracy. Our benchmark and code are available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/tangzx2024/CoLT-Drive and https://github.com/tangzhengxu/CoLT-Drive.