# Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.30795 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.30795/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Understanding Measures of Uncertainty for Adversarial Example Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.08533/) (2018)
- [A Deeper Look into Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Disentanglement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.09308/) (2022)
- [GraphDOP: Towards skilful data-driven medium-range weather forecasts learnt and initialised directly from observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15687/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty quantification for data-driven weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.13458/) (2024)
- [Explaining Predictive Uncertainty by Exposing Second-Order Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.17441/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty and its Disentanglement in multi-label Chest X-Ray Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.04457/) (2025)
- [On the Predictive Skill of Artificial Intelligence-based Weather Models for Extreme Events using Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.17176/) (2025)
- [Beyond Boundary Noise: Aggregated Aleatoric Uncertainty Fails to Capture Presence Ambiguity in 3D Lung Nodule Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.14766/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the numerical weather prediction pipeline, including data assimilation, at a fraction of its cost. These systems are deterministic and issue no uncertainty. Here we render the Aardvark Weather model probabilistic by attaching one stochastic mechanism to each component: learned, input-dependent noise at the observation encoder, capturing aleatoric uncertainty inherited from the observing system, and Monte Carlo dropout in the processor, capturing epistemic uncertainty in the learned dynamics. The resulting nested ensemble attributes forecast spread to the two sources through a law-of-total-variance decomposition, cross-checked by withholding observation streams. Probabilistic finetuning significantly improves the mean forecast, by 4.2% on average across variables and lead times. The ensemble is calibrated against ERA5 through the medium range (spread-skill ratio 0.98), keeps station RMSE within 2.4% of the deterministic model while beating it in CRPS at every lead time, and trails the operational ECMWF ensemble. The encoder branch behaves as observation-driven uncertainty. Component-attributed uncertainty makes end-to-end forecasts more transparent, a step toward observation-driven digital twins of the atmosphere.