# FORESIGHT-9: Prospective and Process-Aware Evaluation of Adaptive Trading Agents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29372 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.29372/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

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- [AgentBench: Evaluating LLMs as Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03688/) (2023)
- [OSWorld: Benchmarking Multimodal Agents for Open-Ended Tasks in Real Computer Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.07972/) (2024)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [AgentBoard: An Analytical Evaluation Board of Multi-turn LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.13178/) (2024)
- [ToolSandbox: A Stateful, Conversational, Interactive Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Tool Use Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04682/) (2024)
- [Data-Efficient Off-Policy Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.00923/) (2016)
- [FinMem: A Performance-Enhanced LLM Trading Agent with Layered Memory and Character Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13743/) (2023)
- [A Multimodal Foundation Agent for Financial Trading: Tool-Augmented, Diversified, and Generalist](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18485/) (2024)
- [Quant GANs: Deep Generation of Financial Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.06673/) (2019)
- [Assessing Look-Ahead Bias in Stock Return Predictions Generated By GPT Sentiment Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17322/) (2023)
- [FactorMiner: A Self-Evolving Agent with Skills and Experience Memory for Financial Alpha Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14670/) (2026)
- [From Knowing to Doing: A Memory-Controlled Benchmark for LLM Trading Agents on Stock Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.28359/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Retrospective backtests provide a limited test of adaptive trading agents: they cannot rule out historical contamination, expose sensitivity to a single realized market path, or reveal internal degeneration during long-horizon adaptation. We introduce FORESIGHT-9, a prospective and process-aware benchmark built from nine auditable counterfactual stress worldlines branching from a common July 2026 information boundary. Each worldline specifies staged macro-financial events and joint multi-asset anchors; a deterministic generator realizes the trajectories, while observations are disclosed according to in-world time. A common contract standardizes observations and execution while preserving each agent's native adaptation loop. We evaluate two adaptive trading-agent frameworks with two foundation-model backbones across 36 long-horizon runs. Agent rankings vary substantially across worldlines and backbones, and a fixed equal-weight policy outperforms 31 of 36 runs. Process telemetry exposes failures that terminal returns conceal: in one high-return run, the live factor library collapsed while executed holdings converged to the equal-weight fallback, even though decision records continued to report an active factor ensemble. FORESIGHT-9 therefore evaluates not only portfolio outcomes, but whether adaptive agent state and execution remain coherent across alternative futures. We release the worldlines, trajectories, audit traces, and regeneration scripts.