# How Far Can 5,500 Hours of Driving Take You? A Scaling Law Analysis of Video Diffusion Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28404 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.28404/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 35 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [DINOv2: Learning Robust Visual Features without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07193/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Scaling Rectified Flow Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03206/) (2024)
- [Quo Vadis, Action Recognition? A New Model and the Kinetics Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07750/) (2017)
- [Wan: Open and Advanced Large-Scale Video Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20314/) (2025)
- [VideoMAE: Masked Autoencoders are Data-Efficient Learners for Self-Supervised Video Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.12602/) (2022)
- [Depth Anything 3: Recovering the Visual Space from Any Views](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.10647/) (2025)
- [LTX-Video: Realtime Video Latent Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00103/) (2024)
- [Scaling Data-Constrained Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16264/) (2023)
- [Vista: A Generalizable Driving World Model with High Fidelity and Versatile Controllability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17398/) (2024)
- [Driving into the Future: Multiview Visual Forecasting and Planning with World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17918/) (2023)
- [DriveDreamer-2: LLM-Enhanced World Models for Diverse Driving Video Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.06845/) (2024)
- [GAIA-2: A Controllable Multi-View Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20523/) (2025)
- [GenAD: Generalized Predictive Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09630/) (2024)
- [Epona: Autoregressive Diffusion World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.24113/) (2025)
- [GEM: A Generalizable Ego-Vision Multimodal World Model for Fine-Grained Ego-Motion, Object Dynamics, and Scene Composition Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.11198/) (2024)
- [DrivingWorld: Constructing World Model for Autonomous Driving via Video GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19505/) (2024)
- [Diffusion Beats Autoregressive in Data-Constrained Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.15857/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Native Multimodal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07951/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws For Diffusion Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08184/) (2024)
- [VaViM and VaVAM: Autonomous Driving through Video Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15672/) (2025)
- [The Role of World Models in Shaping Autonomous Driving: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10498/) (2025)
- [Scaling Laws for Pre-training Agents and World Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04434/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Video generation for autonomous driving cannot follow the web-scale route: driving data is expensive to collect, bound by privacy requirements, and cannot be scraped at will, so models must make the most of a fixed corpus. We present a systematic scaling-law study of video diffusion models trained from scratch on driving data: a family of models from 1M to 9B parameters, trained at different exposures on up to 5,500 hours of driving. Validation loss follows consistent power laws in both model size and training exposure, answering the questions that shape a training budget: whether compute is better spent on longer training or on a larger model, and whether more data is needed. Loss improves much faster with training exposure than with model size, making longer training the most effective way to improve a fixed model under limited compute. However, larger models continue to achieve lower asymptotic loss, so compute-optimal scaling still favors increasing model size when sufficient compute and data are available. Guided by these laws, we train a 9B-parameter model, to our knowledge the largest video diffusion model trained from scratch on driving data: it sets a new open-source state of the art for driving video generation, as measured on nuScenes. Our code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/valeoai/VATIX. NATIX is separately releasing the underlying driving data in stages.