# CASTANET: Causality-Aware Spatio-Temporal Adversarial Network Using Traffic Incident Effects

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27942 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27942/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.03661/) (2016)
- [Estimating Counterfactual Treatment Outcomes over Time Through Adversarially Balanced Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04083/) (2020)
- [Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10943/) (2021)
- [Causal Transformer for Estimating Counterfactual Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07258/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Meta-Graph Learning for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14701/) (2022)
- [Accident Risk Prediction based on Heterogeneous Sparse Data: New Dataset and Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09638/) (2019)
- [Assessing the Causal Impact of COVID-19 Related Policies on Outbreak Dynamics: A Case Study in the US](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01315/) (2021)
- [Causal conditional hidden Markov model for multimodal traffic prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08249/) (2023)
- [Dynamic Causal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.07019/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Predicting non-periodic traffic congestion caused by sudden incidents (e.g., accidents and road damage) is crucial for advanced intelligent transportation systems. However, incident-driven congestion is difficult to forecast because incidents are extremely sparse, occur at specific times and locations, and have heterogeneous impacts depending on the traffic context. While recent deep learning approaches have significantly improved periodic traffic forecasting, their performance on non-periodic congestion remains limited, partly because incident records are not explicitly incorporated and their occurrence is strongly biased in space and time. To address these challenges, we propose CASTANET, which integrates spatio-temporal graph neural networks and causal treatment effect estimation to utilize incident records while mitigating selection bias. Experiments on real-world traffic data and accident records from Tokyo, which we treat as incidents, show that CASTANET reduces RMSE by 4.0% overall compared to the best baseline and by 10.1% on incident-conditioned evaluation, with gains reaching 14.55% under severe congestion.