# Diffusion Distillation for Efficient Weather Ensembles

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.27728 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.27728/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 33 of its 54 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Consistency Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01469/) (2023)
- [ProlificDreamer: High-Fidelity and Diverse Text-to-3D Generation with Variational Score Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16213/) (2023)
- [One-step Diffusion with Distribution Matching Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18828/) (2023)
- [DPM-Solver++: Fast Solver for Guided Sampling of Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.01095/) (2022)
- [On Distillation of Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03142/) (2022)
- [Improved Distribution Matching Distillation for Fast Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14867/) (2024)
- [Consistency Trajectory Models: Learning Probability Flow ODE Trajectory of Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02279/) (2023)
- [Simplifying, Stabilizing and Scaling Continuous-Time Consistency Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.11081/) (2024)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Diff-Instruct: A Universal Approach for Transferring Knowledge From Pre-trained Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18455/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Score identity Distillation: Exponentially Fast Distillation of Pretrained Diffusion Models for One-Step Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.04057/) (2024)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10772/) (2025)
- [FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12144/) (2025)
- [Training neural operators to preserve invariant measures of chaotic attractors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01187/) (2023)
- [One-step Diffusion Models with f-Divergence Distribution Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15681/) (2025)
- [Learning Dissipative Dynamics in Chaotic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06898/) (2021)
- [Learning Variational Data Assimilation Models and Solvers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12941/) (2020)
- [Generalised Latent Assimilation in Heterogeneous Reduced Spaces with Machine Learning Surrogate Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03497/) (2022)
- [Distributional Diffusion Models with Scoring Rules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.02483/) (2025)
- [Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14798/) (2024)
- [Fuxi-DA: A Generalized Deep Learning Data Assimilation Framework for Assimilating Satellite Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08522/) (2024)
- [Uni-Instruct: One-step Diffusion Model through Unified Diffusion Divergence Instruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20755/) (2025)
- [Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20024/) (2025)
- [Swift: An Autoregressive Consistency Model for Efficient Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25631/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Diffusion models generate skillful weather ensembles but require costly iterative sampling. We introduce a supervised energy-distance distillation method that compresses a multi-step diffusion teacher into a single-step student by aligning student forecasts with teacher samples and ground-truth observations. Experiments on global forecasting and typhoon-track prediction show that our student outperforms existing distillation methods and preserves skill for extreme events. It matches or surpasses the teacher across key metrics using only one neural function evaluation per autoregressive step.