# Bridging short- and medium-range weather forecasting with machine learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.26822 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.26822/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [FlashAttention: Fast and Memory-Efficient Exact Attention with IO-Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14135/) (2022)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [Skillful joint probabilistic weather forecasting from marginals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10772/) (2025)
- [FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12144/) (2025)
- [Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10958/) (2024)
- [Graph-based Neural Weather Prediction for Limited Area Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17370/) (2023)
- [FuXi Weather: A data-to-forecast machine learning system for global weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.05472/) (2024)
- [Regional data-driven weather modeling with a global stretched-grid](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02891/) (2024)
- [High-Resolution Probabilistic Data-Driven Weather Modeling with a Stretched-Grid](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.23043/) (2025)
- [HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.05658/) (2025)
- [Learning to Advect: A Neural Semi-Lagrangian Architecture for Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21151/) (2026)
- [Skillful high-resolution weather forecasting independent of physical models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.28153/) (2026)
- [Pointwise is Pointless? A Multimodal Ablation Study for Precipitation Nowcasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18436/) (2026)
- [XiChen: A global weather observation-to-forecast machine learning system via four-dimensional variational gradient-guided flexible assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.09202/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Varda-single-1.0: deterministic data-driven weather forecasting at 1 km resolution over Switzerland's complex topography](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.01835/) (2026)
- [Efficient Analog-Initialized Latent Transport for Spatially Coherent Probabilistic Downscaling from Global to Kilometer Scales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.03736/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) employs independent prediction systems for distinct forecast products. While some separation is practical, we argue that combining short- and medium-range weather into a single prediction system would provide the public with a useful distillation of global weather and its impacts. To this end, we present Nested-EAGLE (Experimental Artificial intelligence Global and Limited-area Ensemble): a 0.25deg global weather model with a 6 km refinement over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The model achieves significantly lower mean-squared error in near-surface and low-level quantities over CONUS compared to NOAA's Global Forecast System and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), while remaining competitive throughout the rest of the global atmosphere. We show that the skill gains for near-surface fields stem from incorporating high-resolution regional analysis data into training through the nesting process. Forecasts of precipitation amounts are less skillful than those from HRRR, owing to deterministic training. However, we show that Nested-EAGLE provides the most accurate forecasts of storm locations at longer leads, despite blurred extrema. Our results motivate future work to extend the skill gains beyond CONUS and improve precipitation representation.