# TraceML: An Empirical Analysis of Human-Agent Planning in Machine Learning Development

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.26086 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.26086/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Web, search, and research agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 44 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Web, search, and research agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/web-search-and-research-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

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- [AutoGluon-Tabular: Robust and Accurate AutoML for Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06505/) (2020)
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- [AIDE: AI-Driven Exploration in the Space of Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13138/) (2025)
- [Data Interpreter: An LLM Agent For Data Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18679/) (2024)
- [SciCode: A Research Coding Benchmark Curated by Scientists](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13168/) (2024)
- [RE-Bench: Evaluating frontier AI R&D capabilities of language model agents against human experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.15114/) (2024)
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- [DS-Agent: Automated Data Science by Empowering Large Language Models with Case-Based Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17453/) (2024)
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- [MLGym: A New Framework and Benchmark for Advancing AI Research Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14499/) (2025)
- [AgentRewardBench: Evaluating Automatic Evaluations of Web Agent Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08942/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Auto-research agents now run machine-learning development unattended for hours, revising data pipelines, models, and validation from their own feedback, yet on most competitions they still finish below strong human competitors. Outcome-based benchmarks record this gap but not its cause, because they grade the final submission and discard the development process behind it. We introduce TraceML, which pairs human and agent work on the same competitions under one version-level schema: 4{,}465 human Kaggle trajectories across 134 competitions, seven of which are also worked by two agent scaffolds, giving 430 paired human and 207 agent trajectories. Every code version carries its score, its timestamp, and labels for the action taken, its intent, the edit size, and the score effect. Read this way, the gap becomes concrete. Experts alternate data work, validation, model changes, and ensembling, and return to approaches they had set aside. Each agent scaffold instead collapses into a narrow loop: Codex spends its steps re-weighting ensembles and tuning submissions, MLEvolve mutates its model in place, and neither pivots at the human rate nor reopens abandoned work. A short planning prompt distilled from human practice moves the behaviors it names toward the human profile and lifts scores, but the effort profile stays agent-shaped: instruction closes only the part of the gap that reduces to instructions. We release the corpus, the schema, and the labeling models, together with an open-source toolkit that turns a run from any command-line agent into a TraceML trajectory and reads it against the human cohorts.