# Unmatched Does Not Mean False: Incomplete Reference Sets Can Reverse Calibration Rankings in Open-Ended Theory-of-Mind Tracking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.25654 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.25654/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dense Passage Retrieval for Open-Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04906/) (2020)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08560/) (2023)
- [FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14251/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Detecting and Correcting for Label Shift with Black Box Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03916/) (2018)
- [Verified Uncertainty Calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.10155/) (2019)
- [Large Language Models Fail on Trivial Alterations to Theory-of-Mind Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.08399/) (2023)
- [Neural Theory-of-Mind? On the Limits of Social Intelligence in Large LMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13312/) (2022)
- [FANToM: A Benchmark for Stress-testing Machine Theory of Mind in Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.15421/) (2023)
- [Evaluating the Evaluator: Measuring LLMs' Adherence to Task Evaluation Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08781/) (2024)
- [ToMATO: Verbalizing the Mental States of Role-Playing LLMs for Benchmarking Theory of Mind](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.08838/) (2025)
- [When Calibration Rankings Reverse: Accuracy-Controlled Evaluation for Fair Comparison of LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30814/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Open-ended Theory-of-Mind (ToM) trackers emit valid beliefs absent from finite references. A finite-reference-plus-matcher pipeline marks unmatched outputs false, creating proxy labels that can reverse proper-score model selection on fixed outputs. Holding 259 beliefs and paired scores fixed, reference recoding lowers weighted prevalence from 0.783 to 0.295 and reverses strictly proper Brier risk: a frozen source-prior rule leads native confidence by 0.227 under reference labels and trails by 0.152 under blinded adjudication, in all six authored scenarios. A reference-only Platt recalibrator reverses further. An ICE-specific reversal appears in a released 301-question NQ-open DPR-BERT pipeline: its average-confidence baseline improves instance-level calibration error by 0.045 under exact match but worsens it by 0.074 under human correctness, with both intervals excluding zero. On independently authored OpenToM narratives, 90-96% of audited unmatched beliefs are literally true and the paired direction again reverses. An exact decomposition attributes the distortion to omitted truths, and a closed-form criterion correctly classifies comparisons from twelve released systems. Frozen-audit retrospective replay shows 50 attempted annotations recover ranking direction with probability at least 0.996. TriSource-Restore anchors full-frame reference labels and frozen automatic judgments to a probability-sampled human pilot, maintains at least nominal coverage, narrows intervals, and repairs confidence subject to a base-rate deployment gate.