# Neural-Bayesian Structure Learning for Discrete Choice Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.25258 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.25258/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01422/) (2018)
- [Stein Variational Gradient Descent: A General Purpose Bayesian Inference Algorithm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.04471/) (2016)
- [DAG-GNN: DAG Structure Learning with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10098/) (2019)
- [Learning Sparse Nonparametric DAGs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13189/) (2019)
- [DiBS: Differentiable Bayesian Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.11839/) (2021)
- [A Neural-embedded Choice Model: TasteNet-MNL Modeling Taste Heterogeneity with Flexibility and Interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00922/) (2020)
- [Theory-based residual neural networks: A synergy of discrete choice models and deep neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11644/) (2020)
- [A Large Language Model for Feasible and Diverse Population Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.04196/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conventional discrete choice and machine learning models are estimated primarily from observational data and typically treat explanatory covariates as parallel inputs, providing no internal mechanism for determining how related attributes should adjust when one is deliberately changed. This paper proposes Neural-Bayesian Structure Learning (Neural-BSL), a framework coupling differentiable structure learning with random-utility-based discrete choice estimation in a single differentiable procedure. To prevent mutually exclusive choice outcome from distorting the recovered attribute structure, the observed choice is maintained outside the graph as an alternative-specific utility comparison, while the attribute structure and random-utility parameters are learned jointly. The learned structure enters the choice model through structure-weighted attribute interactions and provides the structural basis for propagating interventions through downstream attributes. An intervention is evaluated by updating the intervened attribute, propagating its model-implied downstream changes in topological order, and then recomputing utilities and choice probabilities. This yields both predicted mode-share responses and the associated changes in downstream traveler or trip attributes. We evaluate Neural-BSL using stated-preference data from Seoul and the revealed-preference data from London. Neural-BSL achieves predictive performance comparable to conventional benchmarks while recovering behaviorally coherent dependency structures. Across policy scenarios, propagating interventions through the learned structure changes the predicted redistribution across modes while exposing the downstream traveler and trip adjustments underlying those responses.