# Bellman Calibration for Marginalized Importance Weighting in Offline Reinforcement Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.24858 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.24858/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Offline RL algorithms, one of 13 directions in Offline RL and imitation learning from data.
- Builds on 51 of its 87 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Offline RL and imitation learning from data / [Offline RL algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/offlinerl/offline-rl-algorithms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 51)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [D4RL: Datasets for Deep Data-Driven Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07219/) (2020)
- [IMPALA: Scalable Distributed Deep-RL with Importance Weighted Actor-Learner Architectures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.01561/) (2018)
- [Accurate Uncertainties for Deep Learning Using Calibrated Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.00263/) (2018)
- [Doubly Robust Off-policy Value Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.03722/) (2015)
- [Information-Theoretic Considerations in Batch Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00360/) (2019)
- [Data-Efficient Off-Policy Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.00923/) (2016)
- [Safe and Efficient Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.02647/) (2016)
- [DualDICE: Behavior-Agnostic Estimation of Discounted Stationary Distribution Corrections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04733/) (2019)
- [Breaking the Curse of Horizon: Infinite-Horizon Off-Policy Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12429/) (2018)
- [Minimax Weight and Q-Function Learning for Off-Policy Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.12809/) (2019)
- [GenDICE: Generalized Offline Estimation of Stationary Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09072/) (2020)
- [Towards Optimal Off-Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning with Marginalized Importance Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03393/) (2019)
- [Double Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.08526/) (2019)
- [An Emphatic Approach to the Problem of Off-policy Temporal-Difference Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.04269/) (2015)
- [A Review of Off-Policy Evaluation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06355/) (2022)
- [Doubly robust off-policy evaluation with shrinkage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09623/) (2019)
- [Off-Policy Evaluation via the Regularized Lagrangian](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03438/) (2020)
- [Efficiently Breaking the Curse of Horizon in Off-Policy Evaluation with Double Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.05850/) (2019)
- [GradientDICE: Rethinking Generalized Offline Estimation of Stationary Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.11113/) (2020)
- [CoinDICE: Off-Policy Confidence Interval Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11652/) (2020)
- [Asymptotically Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation for Tabular Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.10742/) (2020)
- [Finite Sample Analysis of Minimax Offline Reinforcement Learning: Completeness, Fast Rates and First-Order Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02981/) (2021)
- [Consistent On-Line Off-Policy Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07121/) (2017)
- [Off-Policy Deep Reinforcement Learning by Bootstrapping the Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09455/) (2019)
- [Distribution-free calibration guarantees for histogram binning without sample splitting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04656/) (2021)
- [Intrinsically Efficient, Stable, and Bounded Off-Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03735/) (2019)
- [A Generalized Projected Bellman Error for Off-policy Value Estimation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.13844/) (2021)
- [Stable discovery of interpretable subgroups via calibration in causal studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.10109/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Marginalized importance weighting evaluates a target policy by reweighting offline state-action samples with its discounted occupancy ratio, characterized by an adjoint Bellman equation. Existing minimax, primal-dual, and fitted fixed-point estimators can leave residual occupancy-balance violations because of function-class approximation, regularization, or incomplete optimization. These violations are difficult to diagnose and reduce because the objectives generally lack a direct supervised validation loss for hyperparameter tuning, model selection, and early stopping. We introduce isotonic Bellman calibration, a one-dimensional, model-agnostic post-processing method that reduces these violations while preserving the ranking information in any initial occupancy-ratio estimate. The method corrects the estimate's scale and shape by applying fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation (FORE) over a one-dimensional class of nondecreasing transformations. We characterize Bellman calibration as a conditional fixed-point property equivalent to occupancy-balance against every test function of the calibrated ratio. More generally, we derive a calibration-refinement bound showing that any fitted ratio with small calibration error performs nearly as well as the best post-processing based on its fitted values. For isotonic Bellman calibration, we establish finite-sample calibration guarantees and a KL oracle inequality relative to the best monotone transformation of the initial estimate. Consequently, isotonic Bellman calibration achieves small calibration error and KL risk within statistical error of the best monotone correction, with guarantees for downstream target-occupancy functionals, including policy-value estimation.