# Change Detection in Probability Flow ODE: Online Testing in Diffusion Latent Spaces

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.22807 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.22807/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Classifier-Free Diffusion Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.12598/) (2022)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.05600/) (2019)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Density estimation using Real NVP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.08803/) (2016)
- [Glow: Generative Flow with Invertible 1x1 Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03039/) (2018)
- [Sigmoid-Weighted Linear Units for Neural Network Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.03118/) (2017)
- [EDICT: Exact Diffusion Inversion via Coupled Transformations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12446/) (2022)
- [A Kernelized Stein Discrepancy for Goodness-of-fit Tests and Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.03253/) (2016)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A rapidly growing range of sequential data tasks, such as identifying trend reversals in financial markets, auto-segmenting video and audio recordings, detecting changes in movement direction from motion sensors cannot be fully addressed without detection of distributional shifts in time-ordered data. We consider a sequential change-point detection problem where the conditional density switches at an unknown time, yet neither the pre- nor post-change distribution admits a closed-form. Classical likelihood-ratio statistics are inapplicable in this settings. A conditional diffusion model, trained on pre-change-point data with a frozen context encoder, defines a deterministic bijection via the probability flow ODE. Pre-change observations are mapped onto standard Gaussian latent variables. Post-change observations, processed through the same frozen map, deviate from this reference. We employ the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as the test statistic, derive closed-form expressions for its components under the Gaussian null, and establish its asymptotic distribution as a degenerate U-statistic. Afterwards we apply an online detection procedure of Shiryaev--Roberts to the resulting statistic with exact threshold calibration. The method detects arbitrary distributional shifts, including covariance rotations and higher-order structural breaks, without parametric assumptions on either regime.