# A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.20980 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20980/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks on Graphs with Fast Localized Spectral Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09375/) (2016)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [EvolveGCN: Evolving Graph Convolutional Networks for Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10191/) (2019)
- [Graph Signal Processing: Overview, Challenges and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.00468/) (2017)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.07532/) (2019)
- [Spatial-Temporal Identity: A Simple yet Effective Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05233/) (2022)
- [Decoupled Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.09112/) (2022)
- [PyTorch Geometric Temporal: Spatiotemporal Signal Processing with Neural Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07788/) (2021)
- [Exploring Progress in Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Comprehensive Benchmarking and Heterogeneity Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06119/) (2023)
- [Machine Learning in Python: Main developments and technology trends in data science, machine learning, and artificial intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04803/) (2020)
- [A3T-GCN: Attention Temporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11583/) (2020)
- [GREAD: Graph Neural Reaction-Diffusion Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14208/) (2022)
- [Graph Neural Networks for Wireless Communications: From Theory to Practice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10800/) (2022)
- [Deep learning for dynamic graphs: models and benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06104/) (2023)
- [DenseGNN: universal and scalable deeper graph neural networks for high-performance property prediction in crystals and molecules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03278/) (2025)
- [Message-Passing State-Space Models: Improving Graph Learning with Modern Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18728/) (2025)
- [On The Temporal Domain of Differential Equation Inspired Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.11074/) (2024)
- [A Systematic Literature Review of Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasting and Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.22377/) (2024)
- [Revisiting Node Affinity Prediction in Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.06940/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are routinely employed for spatiotemporal forecasting, yet their performance across widely used benchmark datasets is inconsistent. Here, we perform an audit of dataset properties and baseline models to assess the quality of the benchmarks, and the robustness of the conclusions drawn from them. Using classical statistical tools, we characterise spatiotemporal lagged dependencies in benchmarks, and examine how temporal differencing changes these relationships and affects model rankings. Motivated by this, we re-evaluate temporal linear baselines, significantly reducing the apparent gains from GNNs on several benchmarks, and surpassing GNNs on others. Suspecting that GNNs struggle to extract linear, node-wise signals, we find that supplying them with autoregressive residuals improves their performance particularly on non-traffic benchmarks. Finally, controlled synthetic experiments reveal that GNNs are sensitive to heterogeneity in temporal dynamics and spatial graph interactions. Together, our findings demonstrate that baseline specification, data pre-processing and system heterogeneity shape the interpretations drawn from benchmark rankings, informing the design and robust evaluation of GNNs.