# When Text and Numbers Disagree: Evidence Arbitration in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.20116 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20116/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

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- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [ToolLLM: Facilitating Large Language Models to Master 16000+ Real-world APIs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.16789/) (2023)
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- [ReTool: Reinforcement Learning for Strategic Tool Use in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11536/) (2025)
- [Knowledge Conflicts for LLMs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08319/) (2024)
- [Tool Learning with Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17935/) (2024)
- [Are Language Models Actually Useful for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16964/) (2024)
- [FinBen: A Holistic Financial Benchmark for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12659/) (2024)
- [CALF: Aligning LLMs for Time Series Forecasting via Cross-modal Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07300/) (2024)
- [From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/) (2024)
- [A Review of Prominent Paradigms for LLM-Based Agents: Tool Use (Including RAG), Planning, and Feedback Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05804/) (2024)
- [Resolving Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.00935/) (2023)
- [IRCAN: Mitigating Knowledge Conflicts in LLM Generation via Identifying and Reweighting Context-Aware Neurons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18406/) (2024)
- [Insight Over Sight: Exploring the Vision-Knowledge Conflicts in Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08145/) (2024)
- [OpenTSLM: Time-Series Language Models for Reasoning over Multivariate Medical Text- and Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02410/) (2025)
- [TS-Reasoner: Domain-Oriented Time Series Inference Agents for Reasoning and Automated Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04047/) (2024)
- [TimeSeriesScientist: A General-Purpose AI Agent for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01538/) (2025)
- [When Modalities Conflict: How Unimodal Reasoning Uncertainty Governs Preference Dynamics in MLLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.02243/) (2025)
- [Benchmarking Multimodal Knowledge Conflict for Large Multimodal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19509/) (2025)
- [ECon: On the Detection and Resolution of Evidence Conflicts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04068/) (2024)
- [Language Model Probabilities are Not Calibrated in Numeric Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.16007/) (2024)
- [Exposing Numeracy Gaps: A Benchmark to Evaluate Fundamental Numerical Abilities in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11075/) (2025)
- [CoCoA: Confidence and Context-Aware Adaptive Decoding for Resolving Knowledge Conflicts in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.17670/) (2025)
- [Revisiting LLMs as Zero-Shot Time-Series Forecasters: Small Noise Can Break Large Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.00457/) (2025)
- [Is Cognition Consistent with Perception? Assessing and Mitigating Multimodal Knowledge Conflicts in Document Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.07722/) (2024)
- [Bridging External and Parametric Knowledge: Mitigating Hallucination of LLMs with Shared-Private Semantic Synergy in Dual-Stream Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06240/) (2025)
- [Mental-R1: Aligning LLM Reasoning for Mental Health Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13176/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in settings where textual summaries, numerical observations, and external tool outputs may provide conflicting evidence. We study how LLMs arbitrate between such sources when they support opposing decisions. To do so, we introduce a controlled synthetic benchmark in which latent risk trajectories generate both numerical time series and natural language summaries, allowing us to construct conflicts where exactly one evidence source is aligned with the ground-truth label. This design lets us independently manipulate modality, temporal recency, source reliability, and evidence provenance. Across open-weight instruction-tuned models, we find that arbitration behaviour is systematic rather than random: models exhibit distinct text-versus-number preferences, follow temporal recency more consistently than explicit reliability cues, and can over-rely on external forecasts even when they conflict with direct contextual evidence. These results suggest that current LLMs often rely on heuristic arbitration strategies when integrating heterogeneous evidence, highlighting a failure mode for tool-augmented decision systems.