# SCAPE: Scenario-Conditioned Simulation-Augmented Policy Evaluation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19425 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.19425/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [CARLA: An Open Urban Driving Simulator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03938/) (2017)
- [RT-1: Robotics Transformer for Real-World Control at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06817/) (2022)
- [Domain Randomization for Transferring Deep Neural Networks from Simulation to the Real World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06907/) (2017)
- [SuperGlue: Learning Feature Matching with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11763/) (2019)
- [Isaac Gym: High Performance GPU-Based Physics Simulation For Robot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.10470/) (2021)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Sim-to-Real Transfer of Robotic Control with Dynamics Randomization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.06537/) (2017)
- [Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.04173/) (2016)
- [From Coarse to Fine: Robust Hierarchical Localization at Large Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03506/) (2018)
- [RMA: Rapid Motor Adaptation for Legged Robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04034/) (2021)
- [Learning agile and dynamic motor skills for legged robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.08652/) (2019)
- [Evaluating Real-World Robot Manipulation Policies in Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05941/) (2024)
- [NuPlan: A closed-loop ML-based planning benchmark for autonomous vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11810/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Deep Learning Techniques for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.07738/) (2019)
- [Sim-to-Real: Learning Agile Locomotion For Quadruped Robots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.10332/) (2018)
- [Orbit: A Unified Simulation Framework for Interactive Robot Learning Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.04195/) (2023)
- [MetaDrive: Composing Diverse Driving Scenarios for Generalizable Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.12674/) (2021)
- [Prediction-Powered Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.09633/) (2023)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning for Robotics: A Survey of Real-World Successes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03539/) (2024)
- [Waymax: An Accelerated, Data-Driven Simulator for Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08710/) (2023)
- [ScenarioNet: Open-Source Platform for Large-Scale Traffic Scenario Simulation and Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12241/) (2023)
- [Real-to-Sim Robot Policy Evaluation with Gaussian Splatting Simulation of Soft-Body Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04665/) (2025)
- [GaussGym: An open-source real-to-sim framework for learning locomotion from pixels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15352/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models for Market Research: A Data-augmentation Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19363/) (2024)
- [How Generalizable Is My Behavior Cloning Policy? A Statistical Approach to Trustworthy Performance Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05439/) (2024)
- [Reliable and Scalable Robot Policy Evaluation with Imperfect Simulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04354/) (2025)
- [Sim2Val: Leveraging Correlation Across Test Platforms for Variance-Reduced Metric Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20553/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable performance evaluation is a central bottleneck for deploying robot-learning policies in real-world conditions. Real-world testing is faithful but costly and difficult to scale, whereas simulation-based testing scales easily but is inevitably biased by the sim-to-real gap. Existing simulation-augmented methods combine limited real-world rollouts with abundant simulation proxies, but focus on performance averaged over initial conditions and deployment settings. Such population-level averages obscure scenario-specific variation and provide limited guidance about when and where a policy can be safely deployed. We propose SCAPE, a scenario-conditioned simulation-augmented policy evaluation framework that predicts scenario-conditioned real-world policy performance using limited paired sim-and-real samples and large-scale simulation rollouts. SCAPE corrects sim-to-real bias in simulation labels before training the prediction model and calibrates prediction uncertainty through conformal prediction. We validate SCAPE on autonomous driving and quadruped velocity tracking. In sim-to-sim studies, SCAPE reduces scenario-level prediction error by 4.9%/34.7% (driving) and 14.5%/27.7% (quadruped) relative to scene-conditioned neural and aggregate statistical baselines on average. We further evaluate a velocity-tracking policy deployed on a physical Unitree Go2. SCAPE also improves testing sample efficiency, produces narrower calibrated prediction intervals, generalizes better to out-of-distribution scenarios, and enables fine-grained deployment strategies.