# Structure, Association, and Decision Value: Representation-Based Difficulty Estimation for Adaptive Inference in African-Language NLI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.19003 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.19003/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Unsupervised Cross-lingual Representation Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02116/) (2019)
- [DeBERTaV3: Improving DeBERTa using ELECTRA-Style Pre-Training with Gradient-Disentangled Embedding Sharing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09543/) (2021)
- [XNLI: Evaluating Cross-lingual Sentence Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.05053/) (2018)
- [How Contextual are Contextualized Word Representations? Comparing the Geometry of BERT, ELMo, and GPT-2 Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.00512/) (2019)
- [NLP Evaluation in trouble: On the Need to Measure LLM Data Contamination for each Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.18018/) (2023)
- [DeeBERT: Dynamic Early Exiting for Accelerating BERT Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.12993/) (2020)
- [MiniLMv2: Multi-Head Self-Attention Relation Distillation for Compressing Pretrained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15828/) (2020)
- [MasakhaNER: Named Entity Recognition for African Languages](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11811/) (2021)
- [Adapting Pre-trained Language Models to African Languages via Multilingual Adaptive Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06487/) (2022)
- [CascadeBERT: Accelerating Inference of Pre-trained Language Models via Calibrated Complete Models Cascade](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14682/) (2020)
- [Data Contamination Quiz: A Tool to Detect and Estimate Contamination in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06233/) (2023)
- [IrokoBench: A New Benchmark for African Languages in the Age of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03368/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We ask whether internal representation statistics can provide useful example-level difficulty signals for adaptive inference in multilingual African NLP, and find that they cannot in this setting. Studying natural language inference across 15 African languages with frozen off-the-shelf checkpoints, we report four results. First, AfriXNLI's English configuration shares 1,047 of its 1,050 examples verbatim with XNLI evaluation data, and one widely used NLI checkpoint scores 1.000 on that test split, consistent with XNLI test exposure. Because AfriXNLI is derived from XNLI, its English, French and Swahili configurations cannot serve as clean evaluations for XNLI-trained models. Second, parameter count does not reliably order capability across African languages: our larger checkpoint is better in seven languages and worse in eight, with no significant aggregate difference. Third, across three multilingual representation spaces, angular dispersion is consistently more language-determined than effective rank, so pooled correlations can inflate one and mask the other. Fourth, the association that survives language control depends on the target: effective rank predicts probability gain from escalation but not whether escalation changes the prediction, while cheap-model confidence shows the opposite pattern; the two targets correlate at only 0.655. Under the tested models, signals, and compute budgets, no evaluated signal makes adaptive routing preferable to always-expensive inference, although an oracle exceeds it by 11 accuracy points at 60% of the compute. Our central methodological finding is that a representation statistic can be statistically significant for one notion of computational benefit while being irrelevant to another, and therefore be a poor decision variable.