# A Critical Synthesis of Uncertainty Quantification and Foundation Models for Semantic Segmentation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18709 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.18709/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 31 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Masked Autoencoders Are Scalable Vision Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.06377/) (2021)
- [Fully Convolutional Networks for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4038/) (2014)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [The Cityscapes Dataset for Semantic Urban Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.01685/) (2016)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [DeepLab: Semantic Image Segmentation with Deep Convolutional Nets, Atrous Convolution, and Fully Connected CRFs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.00915/) (2016)
- [Encoder-Decoder with Atrous Separable Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.02611/) (2018)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [Masked-attention Mask Transformer for Universal Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.01527/) (2021)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [RefineNet: Multi-Path Refinement Networks for High-Resolution Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.06612/) (2016)
- [Semantic Foggy Scene Understanding with Synthetic Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07819/) (2017)
- [A Survey of Convolutional Neural Networks: Analysis, Applications, and Prospects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.02806/) (2020)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [Hiera: A Hierarchical Vision Transformer without the Bells-and-Whistles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00989/) (2023)
- [Omnivore: A Single Model for Many Visual Modalities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08377/) (2022)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [Evaluating Scalable Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Robust Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.01620/) (2019)
- [Exploring Uncertainty Measures in Deep Networks for Multiple Sclerosis Lesion Detection and Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.01200/) (2018)
- [Evaluating Bayesian Deep Learning Methods for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12709/) (2018)
- [Multimodal Token Fusion for Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08721/) (2022)
- [Spatial Information Guided Convolution for Real-Time RGBD Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04534/) (2020)
- [Image Segmentation in Foundation Model Era: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12957/) (2024)
- [AsymFormer: Asymmetrical Cross-Modal Representation Learning for Mobile Platform Real-Time RGB-D Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14065/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Foundation models are increasingly breaking what seemed to be impossible not long ago by enabling unprecedented accuracy and cross-domain generalization. Yet their lack of interpretability, tendency to be overconfident, and sensitivity to real-world domain shifts pose critical challenges for safety- and mission-critical applications. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) offers a principled way to address these issues, but its integration into segmentation foundation models has yet to be explored. In this paper we present the first systematic evaluation of UQ methods applied to a foundation model for semantic segmentation. We fine-tune a lightweight DPT decoder on top of the pretrained SAM2 encoder to establish a simple yet competitive baseline and benchmark four representative UQ approaches - Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Sub-Ensemble, Test-Time Augmentation, and Evidential Deep Learning - across Cityscapes, NYUv2, and two challenging out-of-domain settings. Our analysis compares segmentation accuracy, calibration, uncertainty quality, and inference time, revealing clear trade-offs between predictive performance, reliability, and computational cost. These results highlight both the promise and the current limitations of uncertainty-aware foundation models, pointing to the need for future work that jointly optimizes accuracy, robustness, and efficiency for real-world deployment.