# Can a Lightweight Multimodal Model Estimate LLM Reasoning Performance? A Study for Compute-Optimal Document Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18591 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.18591/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Multimodal reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 9 of its 12 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Multimodal reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/multimodal-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [SigLIP 2: Multilingual Vision-Language Encoders with Improved Semantic Understanding, Localization, and Dense Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14786/) (2025)
- [RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18665/) (2024)
- [TAT-QA: A Question Answering Benchmark on a Hybrid of Tabular and Textual Content in Finance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.07624/) (2021)
- [Inference Scaling Laws: An Empirical Analysis of Compute-Optimal Inference for Problem-Solving with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00724/) (2024)
- [How Do AI Agents Spend Your Money? Analyzing and Predicting Token Consumption in Agentic Coding Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.22750/) (2026)
- [The Price Reversal Phenomenon: When Cheaper Reasoning Models Cost More](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.23971/) (2026)
- [Unchecked and Overlooked: Addressing the Checkbox Blind Spot in Large Language Models with CheckboxQA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.10419/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uniformly allocating inference reasoning budgets to LLMs is expensive and prone to over-thinking penalties; especially in document tasks where visual layouts drive complexity. To address this, we introduce BudgetDoc, the first multimodal benchmark providing explicit supervision for model-budget-performance trade-offs across three document tasks. Using BudgetDoc, we train DRB (Document-Reasoning Balancer), an approx. 1B-parameter pre-flight estimator (SigLIP-2 + Qwen3-0.6B) that predicts ordinal model performance across budget levels, achieving a 0.753 weighted F1. When dynamically allocating reasoning budgets across five frontier models and three datasets, DRB matches or improves F1 scores compared to always-maximum-budget baselines in 9 of 15 configurations while drastically reducing cost. Finally, preliminary evaluations demonstrate DRB's potential to generalize to cross-model selection.