# Multi-Level Bayesian Calibration of a Multi-Component Dynamic System Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.18430 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.18430/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Hierarchical Bayesian Operational Modal Analysis: Theory and Computations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.06370/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper proposes a multi-level Bayesian calibration approach that fuses information from heterogeneous sources and accounts for uncertainties in modeling and measurements for time-dependent multi-component systems. The developed methodology has two elements: quantifying the uncertainty at component and system levels, by fusing all available information, and corrected model prediction. A multi-level Bayesian calibration approach is developed to estimate component-level and system-level parameters using measurement data that are obtained at different time instances for different system components. Such heterogeneous data are consumed in a sequential manner, and an iterative strategy is developed to calibrate the parameters at the two levels. This calibration strategy is implemented for two scenarios: offline and online. The offline calibration uses data that is collected over all the time-steps, whereas online calibration is performed in real-time as new measurements are obtained at each time-step. Analysis models and observation data for the thermo-mechanical behavior of gas turbine engine rotor blades are used to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed approach.