# MAGPIE-Net: Predicting short-duration heavy-rainfall events in station neighborhoods from multitemporal FY-4A AGRI observations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.17753 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17753/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 60 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [UNet++: A Nested U-Net Architecture for Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.10165/) (2018)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Deep Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06114/) (2017)
- [Conditional Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01613/) (2018)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13556/) (2019)
- [MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12140/) (2020)
- [SmaAt-UNet: Precipitation Nowcasting using a Small Attention-UNet Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.04417/) (2020)
- [Data-driven Precipitation Nowcasting Using Satellite Imagery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.11480/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Short-duration heavy-rainfall warning determines whether 1 h rainfall will exceed a threshold within a target-station neighborhood over the next few hours. Multitemporal infrared and water-vapor observations from the Fengyun-4A Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (FY-4A AGRI) capture cloud-top cooling, moisture evolution, and cloud expansion before substantial surface rainfall develops. However, most deep-learning nowcasting methods convert these signals into local warnings by post-processing gridded precipitation predictions, preventing station-neighborhood event targets from directly supervising the satellite-to-station learning pathway. We propose MAGPIE-Net, which embeds a geographically adaptive, differentiable grid-to-station mapping in a pathway combining convection-initiation features, multiscale encoding, and auxiliary gridded precipitation diagnosis. Station-neighborhood event losses thereby constrain the satellite representation and its mapping to irregular station locations for 0-3 h event prediction. In independent 2023 warm-season tests over central and eastern China, critical success index (CSI) values under the primary 40 km/20 mm h-1 definition were 0.371, 0.304, and 0.238 at 0-1, 1-2, and 2-3 h. Across episodes, MAGPIE-Net achieved a detection rate of 65.1% and a mean lead time of 64.6 min, compared with 23.6% and 18.3 min for the best gridded-output baseline, and remained superior for smaller neighborhoods and the 50 mm h-1 threshold. During the critical early-warning stage, when antecedent 1 h rainfall within 40 km remained below 1 mm, MAGPIE-Net detected 51.9% of episodes with a mean lead time of 38.5 min. These results show that event-oriented satellite-to-station modeling converts multitemporal geostationary cloud and moisture observations into local heavy-rainfall warnings more effectively than gridded-precipitation modeling.