# Non-Crossing Deep Quantile Regression for Distributional Survival Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16864 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16864/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [KAN: Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19756/) (2024)
- [TabTransformer: Tabular Data Modeling Using Contextual Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.06678/) (2020)
- [DeepSurv: Personalized Treatment Recommender System Using A Cox Proportional Hazards Deep Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.00931/) (2016)
- [Time-to-Event Prediction with Neural Networks and Cox Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00825/) (2019)
- [Inductive Biases and Variable Creation in Self-Attention Mechanisms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.10090/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning for Survival Analysis: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14961/) (2023)
- [Continuous and Discrete-Time Survival Prediction with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.06724/) (2019)
- [High-Dimensional Survival Analysis: Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.02948/) (2022)
- [An Introduction to Deep Survival Analysis Models for Predicting Time-to-Event Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.01086/) (2024)
- [Generalization Bounds and Model Complexity for Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08026/) (2024)
- [Survival Kernets: Scalable and Interpretable Deep Kernel Survival Analysis with an Accuracy Guarantee](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.10477/) (2022)
- [Deep Distributional Learning with Non-crossing Quantile Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08215/) (2025)
- [Understanding Overparametrization in Survival Models through Interpolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.12463/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number. Quantile-based modeling instead describes the full conditional distribution on the original time scale, but existing censored-data methods are either inflexible or produce logically inconsistent crossing quantile curves. We propose a Censored Non-crossing Quantile (CNQ) framework for right-censored data that jointly estimates several conditional survival quantiles and guarantees valid ordering by construction, with flexibility supplied by Kolmogorov-Arnold and Transformer backbones, and we establish a finite-sample excess-risk bound holding jointly across all fitted quantile levels. Across 27 simulation settings and six cohorts the framework attains lower pinball loss than quantile-, hazard- and tree-based competitors whenever the conditional distribution is asymmetric, with interval coverage closer to nominal on all six. In two clinical case studies (METABRIC, breast cancer; FLCHAIN, population mortality) it recovers covariate effects that vary across the survival distribution and would be hidden by a single hazard ratio, and yields coherent individualized quantile milestones. Code: https://github.com/BIG-S2/deepcnq