# Conditional Evaluation of Language Models with Cheap Auxiliary Signals

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16210 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16210/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 39 of its 49 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 39)

- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [G-Eval: NLG Evaluation using GPT-4 with Better Human Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.16634/) (2023)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [Learn to Explain: Multimodal Reasoning via Thought Chains for Science Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.09513/) (2022)
- [MMLU-Pro: A More Robust and Challenging Multi-Task Language Understanding Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01574/) (2024)
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- [Instruction-Following Evaluation for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07911/) (2023)
- [Chatbot Arena: An Open Platform for Evaluating LLMs by Human Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04132/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [Model Cards for Model Reporting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03993/) (2018)
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- [ChatEval: Towards Better LLM-based Evaluators through Multi-Agent Debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07201/) (2023)
- [Prometheus: Inducing Fine-grained Evaluation Capability in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08491/) (2023)
- [PandaLM: An Automatic Evaluation Benchmark for LLM Instruction Tuning Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05087/) (2023)
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- [FLASK: Fine-grained Language Model Evaluation based on Alignment Skill Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10928/) (2023)
- [Generative Judge for Evaluating Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05470/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Cognitive Biases in Large Language Models as Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17012/) (2023)
- [PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01453/) (2023)
- [The BiGGen Bench: A Principled Benchmark for Fine-grained Evaluation of Language Models with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05761/) (2024)
- [Style Over Substance: Evaluation Biases for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03025/) (2023)
- [CritiqueLLM: Towards an Informative Critique Generation Model for Evaluation of Large Language Model Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18702/) (2023)
- [Semi-supervised Inference: General Theory and Estimation of Means](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.07268/) (2016)
- [Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04291/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Aggregate accuracy hides where models succeed and fail. Estimating conditional performance profiles from gold labels alone is expensive, while cheap auxiliary signals such as LLM-judge scores, pairwise comparisons, confidence scores, and judge-disagreement features can be collected for every benchmark item but are often biased or miscalibrated. We propose LACE (Local Augmented Control-Variate Evaluation), a semi-supervised estimator for conditional LLM evaluation. The key step is local centering: after subtracting the conditional mean of a cheap signal within the target profile region, any linear augmentation has zero conditional mean and therefore cannot change the estimand. The augmentation coefficient is used only for efficiency, and a local ridge control variate combines a gold-label residual mean from the labeled subset with a cheap-signal mean from the full item pool. We prove calibration-free identification, unbiasedness for grouped profiles, local oracle optimality within centered linear augmentations, and first-order adaptivity to the estimated coefficient. The resulting gain formula is governed by a population local R2, which characterizes how the efficiency attainable from the cheap signals varies across profile values. We also derive corresponding estimators for direct paired model gaps and deployment-weighted scores. We empirically evaluate the primary performance-profile estimator on MATH-500, ScienceQA, MMLU, WinoGrande, HellaSwag, TruthfulQA, GSM8K, and ARC.