# FirstDiff: One-Step Diffusion-Based Anomaly Detection for Multivariate Time Series via Initial Noise Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15727 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15727/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 20 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04431/) (2018)
- [Anomaly Transformer: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Association Discrepancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.02642/) (2021)
- [Graph Neural Network-Based Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06947/) (2021)
- [TranAD: Deep Transformer Networks for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07284/) (2022)
- [A Multimodal Anomaly Detector for Robot-Assisted Feeding Using an LSTM-based Variational Autoencoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00614/) (2017)
- [A review on outlier/anomaly detection in time series data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04236/) (2020)
- [A Deep Neural Network for Unsupervised Anomaly Detection and Diagnosis in Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.08055/) (2018)
- [MAD-GAN: Multivariate Anomaly Detection for Time Series Data with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04997/) (2019)
- [Multivariate Time-series Anomaly Detection via Graph Attention Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02040/) (2020)
- [ECOD: Unsupervised Outlier Detection Using Empirical Cumulative Distribution Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.00382/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.05244/) (2022)
- [Diffusion Models for Time Series Applications: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00624/) (2023)
- [ImDiffusion: Imputed Diffusion Models for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.00754/) (2023)
- [A Comprehensive Survey of Deep Transfer Learning for Anomaly Detection in Industrial Time Series: Methods, Applications, and Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.05638/) (2023)
- [TiSAT: Time Series Anomaly Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.05167/) (2022)
- [PaAno: Patch-Based Representation Learning for Time-Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01359/) (2026)
- [Anomaly detection using Diffusion-based methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.07539/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Diffusion models have recently shown strong potential for multivariate time-series anomaly detection by learning the distribution of normal data through iterative denoising. Existing diffusion-based approaches, however, typically perform anomaly detection after completing the reverse diffusion process, relying primarily on the final reconstructed signal and overlooking informative representations produced during denoising. This design incurs substantial computational cost and limits the use of intermediate diffusion information for anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose FirstDiff, a diffusion-based anomaly detection framework based on the observation that the predicted diffusion noise at the initial reverse-diffusion evaluation already contains sufficient information for accurate anomaly detection. FirstDiff models the statistical distribution of predicted diffusion noise under normal behavior using validation data, enabling anomaly inference from a single denoising-network evaluation rather than completing the reverse diffusion trajectory. To model complex temporal and inter-sensor dependencies, FirstDiff employs a Diffusion Transformer as the denoising backbone. Extensive experiments on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that FirstDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance while reducing diffusion inference from the full reverse trajectory to a single denoising-network evaluation.