# Physics-informed VAE-EVT for Tail Aware Radio Map Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15314 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15314/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 18 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [RadioUNet: Fast Radio Map Estimation with Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09002/) (2019)
- [A Tutorial on Environment-Aware Communications via Channel Knowledge Map for 6G](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07460/) (2023)
- [RadioDiff: An Effective Generative Diffusion Model for Sampling-Free Dynamic Radio Map Construction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08593/) (2024)
- [RME-GAN: A Learning Framework for Radio Map Estimation based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12817/) (2022)
- [Dataset of Pathloss and ToA Radio Maps With Localization Application](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.11777/) (2022)
- [Ultra-Reliable and Low-Latency Wireless Communication: Tail, Risk and Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01270/) (2018)
- [Radio Map Prediction from Aerial Images and Application to Coverage Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17264/) (2024)
- [Diffraction and Scattering Aware Radio Map and Environment Reconstruction using Geometry Model-Assisted Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.00229/) (2024)
- [Wireless Channel Modeling Based on Extreme Value Theory for Ultra-Reliable Communications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00565/) (2020)
- [Extreme Value Theory Based Rate Selection for Ultra-Reliable Communications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05882/) (2024)
- [EVT-Based Generative AI for Tail-Aware Channel Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.25008/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC) requires precise identification of spatial regions where the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) falls below an outage threshold. In this context, an outage refers to instances in which SNR falls below a specified threshold, which, for URLLC, can be as stringent as the 0.1% quantile of the SNR distribution. Traditional generative radio map models tend to focus on reconstructing average signal levels, often overlooking the low SNR that is crucial for accurate outage prediction. To address this limitation, we introduce a physics- and tail-informed VAE-EVT (variational autoencoder-extreme value theory) framework that distinctly models both the bulk and tail distribution of SNR. Our approach begins with a physics-informed preprocessing stage that extracts deterministic features, including line-of-sight, shadowing, and distance, from the scene geometry. A dual-latent encoder then captures the bulk SNR using a Gaussian mixture and the tail using a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). By employing a modified variational objective, the model is trained to jointly supervise both regimes, ensuring focused attention on extreme fading events. Evaluated on the RadioMapSeer dataset, our method achieves an SNR RMSE of 4.83 dB in the outage region defined by the low threshold of 0.1% SNR quantile. This significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art GAN-based model, which records an SNR RMSE of 21.90 dB, with the performance gap widening as the outage threshold becomes more stringent.