# A Unified Mamba--MoE Surrogate for Closed-Loop Simulation and Measurement-Window Forecasting of Inverter Transients

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.15051 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15051/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in MoE for time series and graphs, one of 12 directions in Mixture-of-experts.
- Builds on 21 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Mixture-of-experts / [MoE for time series and graphs](https://mlsanity.com/moe/moe-for-time-series-and-graphs/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [DeepONet: Learning nonlinear operators for identifying differential equations based on the universal approximation theorem of operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03193/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00170/) (2021)
- [From Sparse to Soft Mixtures of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00951/) (2023)
- [MoE-Mamba: Efficient Selective State Space Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04081/) (2024)
- [BlackMamba: Mixture of Experts for State-Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01771/) (2024)
- [DeepONet-Grid-UQ: A Trustworthy Deep Operator Framework for Predicting the Power Grid's Post-Fault Trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07176/) (2022)
- [DAE-PINN: A Physics-Informed Neural Network Model for Simulating Differential-Algebraic Equations with Application to Power Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04304/) (2021)
- [DeepGraphONet: A Deep Graph Operator Network to Learn and Zero-shot Transfer the Dynamic Response of Networked Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.10622/) (2022)
- [Applied Koopman Operator Theory for Power Systems Technology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.00159/) (2017)
- [PowerMamba: A Deep State Space Model and Comprehensive Benchmark for Time Series Prediction in Electric Power Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06112/) (2024)
- [Routing Mamba: Scaling State Space Models with Mixture-of-Experts Projection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18145/) (2025)
- [Revisiting Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Inverters: A Duality Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.13094/) (2021)
- [Observability and parameter estimation of a generic model for aggregated distributed energy resources](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.10892/) (2025)
- [Stiffness-Aware Decentralized Dynamic State Estimation for Inverter-Dominated Power Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.18732/) (2026)
- [Physics-Guided Dimension Reduction for Simulation-Free Operator Learning of Stiff Differential-Algebraic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19930/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper proposes a Mamba surrogate model with mixture-of-experts (MoE) routing to represent the transient dynamics of inverter-based resources. A Mamba surrogate model is a predictive machine learning model built on the Mamba architecture. MoE routing uses a router network to assign data-dependent weights to specialized subnetworks (experts). The resulting Mamba--MoE surrogate can perform two tasks: (i) closed-loop simulation and (ii) measurement-window forecasting of inverter transients. A single Mamba backbone with task conditioning and expert routing serves both tasks, replacing two separate specialists. Task-matched objectives fit each prediction form, and an adaptive conformal layer provides prediction intervals for both tasks. For the considered grid-following inverter, the unified surrogate model remains in the same low-error regime as a Mamba specialist pair while using 13% fewer parameters. The prediction intervals achieve 94--96% empirical mean marginal coverage across the two tasks. For transient dynamics---that is, beyond the vicinity of an equilibrium point---our surrogate model with MoE routing yields lower errors across all outputs in both tasks compared to a shared Mamba backbone without expert routing. A controller hardware-in-the-loop simulation validates our results and shows that adapting only the shared output head with limited measured data reduces held-out forecasting error.