# Your Probabilistic JEPA Is Secretly a Hidden Markov Model: A State-Space Interpretation of Joint-Embedding Predictive Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13621 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.13621/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 15 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Self-Supervised Learning from Images with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08243/) (2023)
- [MC-JEPA: A Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture for Self-Supervised Learning of Motion and Content Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.12698/) (2023)
- [Gaussian Joint Embeddings For Self-Supervised Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.26799/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A hidden Markov model (HMM) combines three roles: inference of a hidden-state belief from observations, propagation through a Markov transition, and emission back to observation space. We show that full, time-indexed Predictive Information Bottleneck VJEPA (PIB-VJEPA) exposes the same computational structure: a stochastic context encoder plays the role of an amortized filtering distribution, a probabilistic predictor defines latent-state dynamics, and a decoder, inverse target encoder, or induced implicit conditional supplies the emission direction. We distinguish 4 progressively stronger levels of correspondence and give sufficient conditions for exact sequence-level HMM equivalence. To make the connection concrete, we introduce Markov-Chain JEPA (MCJEPA), which replaces the latent predictor by a learned transition matrix; in the finite time-homogeneous case, matrix powers guarantee exact multi-horizon Chapman--Kolmogorov consistency. Conditioned discrete-state transitions, continuous-state Markov kernels, and continuous-time dynamics extend this construction, while deterministic temporal JEPA appears as a degenerate Dirac-kernel special case. We further interpret predictive information-bottleneck learning as seeking a compact predictive state: compression promotes minimality, while residual predictability tests sufficiency. Controlled experiments support transition composition, the filtering interpretation, predictive Markovization in a known synthetic process, and the distinction between JEPA latent prediction and HMM-style sequence learning. Together, these results give temporal JEPA a principled state-space interpretation.