# Predicting consumer-technology ownership without a diffusion history

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.12344 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.12344/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 2 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.20370/) (2026)
- [Can LLMs Think Like Consumers? Benchmarking Crowd-Level Reaction Reconstruction with ConsumerSimBench](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.17079/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We test whether the perceived attributes of a consumer technology predict how widely it is owned. In a 2022 Prolific survey of US adults (n = 678), respondents rated 65 consumer technologies on six attributes. We then elicited the same ratings from two frontier language models, Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7 and OpenAI GPT-5.5. We regress ownership prevalence on four UTAUT2 acceptance attributes plus a log-age covariate with a sign-constrained penalized regression and evaluate it by holding out one technology at a time. The attribute model improves on a baseline of years-since-launch: mean absolute error falls by 17% with the human ratings, and by more with either model, most with Opus 4.7. Over the short 2022-to-2025 window, where ownership moved little, the same attributes do not improve on a no-change baseline. We set out the limitations of the approach, including the possibility that language-model ratings reflect prior knowledge of these technologies rather than independent attribute reasoning. We include a deployment illustration: 2027 ownership predictions for eleven products launched in 2025 and 2026.