# TailBooster: A Dual-Layer Generative Framework for Extreme Value Augmentation with Operational Validity Enforcement

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.11951 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.11951/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 55 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Modeling Tabular data using Conditional GAN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00503/) (2019)
- [Tackling the Generative Learning Trilemma with Denoising Diffusion GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.07804/) (2021)
- [Data Synthesis based on Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03384/) (2018)
- [ExGAN: Adversarial Generation of Extreme Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.08454/) (2020)
- [Pareto GAN: Extending the Representational Power of GANs to Heavy-Tailed Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.09113/) (2021)
- [A VAE Approach to Sample Multivariate Extremes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10987/) (2023)
- [Taming the Tail in Class-Conditional GANs: Knowledge Sharing via Unconditional Training at Lower Resolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17065/) (2024)
- [Robust Bayesian Inference for Discrete Outcomes with the Total Variation Distance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13456/) (2020)
- [Leveraging Generative Adversarial Networks for Addressing Data Imbalance in Financial Market Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15222/) (2024)
- [Beyond the Norm: A Survey of Synthetic Data Generation for Rare Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06380/) (2025)
- [A Comparative Study of Sampling Methods with Cross-Validation in the FedHome Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01950/) (2024)
- [Towards a framework on tabular synthetic data generation: a minimalist approach: theory, use cases, and limitations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.10982/) (2024)
- [Combining deep generative models with extreme value theory for synthetic hazard simulation: a multivariate and spatially coherent approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.18521/) (2023)
- [zGAN: An Outlier-focused Generative Adversarial Network For Realistic Synthetic Data Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.20808/) (2024)
- [Generative Augmentation of Imbalanced Flight Records for Flight Diversion Prediction: A Multi-objective Optimisation Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.20288/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Extreme events in air transport, such as severe arrival delays and abnormal air times, cause cascading network disruptions with substantial operational, economic, and safety costs. Such events are rare in historical records, leaving insufficient training signal for machine learning models. Synthetic data augmentation offers a principled solution, but conventional generative models under-represent distributional tails and give no guarantee against operationally infeasible instances, such as a short air time paired with a long flight distance. No existing approach addresses both limitations for mixed-type tabular records. We propose TailBooster, a dual-layer generative framework combining generative modelling with two anomaly detection layers. A statistical layer extracts extremes via the interquartile range, supplying tail-concentrated training signal to dedicated generative models, here a Tabular Variational Autoencoder. A deep learning layer then applies autoencoder-based cleaning, discarding synthetic records that violate the operational envelope learned from historical data. The framework was evaluated on US flight records across five dimensions: diversity, statistical similarity, fidelity, operational validity, and utility, the latter two being the primary improvement targets. Data-driven cleaning markedly improved operational validity, while targeted augmentation enhanced utility for extreme-event prediction. Across six regression algorithms, training on the framework's records reduced Mean Absolute Error by 47-49% on extreme air time and 29-57% on extreme arrival delay prediction relative to conventional synthetic data, with comparable gains when real records were enriched with synthetic extremes. Being fully data-driven and model-agnostic, TailBooster extends to domains where extreme-event prediction is critical and domain-specific rules are unavailable.