# An adaptive and evolvable deep reinforcement learning framework for weather prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09948 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.09948/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in RL for energy, networks and operations, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods.
- Builds on 20 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- Deep reinforcement learning methods / [RL for energy, networks and operations](https://mlsanity.com/deeprl/rl-for-energy-networks-and-operations/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Outrageously Large Neural Networks: The Sparsely-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06538/) (2017)
- [Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.02971/) (2015)
- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Addressing Function Approximation Error in Actor-Critic Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09477/) (2018)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03838/) (2023)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/) (2022)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10024/) (2024)
- [FourCastNet 3: A geometric approach to probabilistic machine-learning weather forecasting at scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12144/) (2025)
- [Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10958/) (2024)
- [Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19630/) (2024)
- [MoWE : A Mixture of Weather Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.09052/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

No single AI weather model excels at all variables, pressure levels, and lead times. Rather than building yet another architecture, we reframe the forecasting problem as one of coordination. Here we present Feitian Adaptive Ensemble Weather (FTAE-Weather), a lightweight framework that learns, through deep reinforcement learning, when and where to trust each member of an open pool of pretrained forecasters. A tactical Weight-Agent reads the current atmospheric state and assigns variable- and horizon-specific fusion weights, while a strategic Evolve-Agent periodically prunes underperforming models and absorbs newly released ones. Asynchronous prediction caching keeps training cost independent of the slowest constituent model. Adding fewer than 0.01 percent extra parameters, FTAE-Weather reduces RMSE by from 17.2 percent to 78.3 percent over the best individual model in 10 atmospheric variables and outperforms conventional ensemble baselines across lead times from 72 to 360 hours. The framework thus converts a growing, fragmented inventory of specialist models into a single prediction system that strengthens as the field of AI weather forecasting releases new architectures-turning model diversity from a coordination challenge into a compounding scientific advantage.