# Space-Creating versus Dead Possession: An Off-Ball Possession-Quality Index for Broadcast Football

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09887 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.09887/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 14 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [BoT-SORT: Robust Associations Multi-Pedestrian Tracking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14651/) (2022)
- [Actions Speak Louder Than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07127/) (2018)
- [SoccerNet Game State Reconstruction: End-to-End Athlete Tracking and Identification on a Minimap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11335/) (2024)
- [A framework for the fine-grained evaluation of the instantaneous expected value of soccer possessions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09426/) (2020)
- [PnLCalib: Sports Field Registration via Points and Lines Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08401/) (2024)
- [TranSPORTmer: A Holistic Approach to Trajectory Understanding in Multi-Agent Sports](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.17785/) (2024)
- [Inferring Player Location in Sports Matches: Multi-Agent Spatial Imputation from Limited Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06569/) (2023)
- [Enhancing Soccer Camera Calibration Through Keypoint Exploitation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.07401/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [How Much Velocity Does Off-Ball Space Value Need? A Broadcast-Viewport Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.10801/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the off-ball question a sterile possession poses: did holding the ball create space, or was the circulation dead? We answer this in two layers. First, an event-side junk-possession index prices each possession sequence by its peak threat gain under an expected-threat grid and -- after reconstructing the live scoreline to exclude lead-protecting circulation -- flags low-threat sequences in tied-or-losing states. On the 2026 FIFA World Cup (103 matches, 206 team-matches) the flag correlates negatively with points (r=-0.37) and xG difference (r=-0.51, partly index-coupled). It is not a repackaging of on-ball value: with team offensive VAEP and field tilt held fixed, the junk flag stays strongly negatively associated with points (p<0.0001, also match-clustered) while VAEP is not significant -- in this same-match (descriptive) regression it adds information beyond this on-ball action-value model. Second, for a flagged window we resolve whether it was spatially dead or space-creating by projecting broadcast video to pitch coordinates and measuring a Space-Creation Index (SCI): a net pitch-control change capturing whether the possession seized space or pushed the opponent's block back. Across 31 of 35 flagged windows from nine World Cup matches (a purposive sample), 74% are spatially non-space-creating, 19% weak progression, and 6% space-creating windows the event flag alone would score as failure -- including a side with 73% of the ball that exited on penalties (two non-creating windows). The two layers separate space-creating-but-unconverted from sterile possession, a distinction event-only on-ball value cannot make.