# ReliableNet: A Chance-Constrained Approach to Trustworthy Classification in Deep Learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09768 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.09768/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 32 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [When Does Label Smoothing Help?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02629/) (2019)
- [Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04606/) (2018)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09437/) (2020)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Risk-Constrained Reinforcement Learning with Percentile Risk Criteria](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.01629/) (2015)
- [On Mixup Training: Improved Calibration and Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11001/) (2019)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [On Gradient Descent Ascent for Nonconvex-Concave Minimax Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00331/) (2019)
- [To Trust Or Not To Trust A Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.11783/) (2018)
- [Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.07972/) (2020)
- [Deep Gamblers: Learning to Abstain with Portfolio Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00208/) (2019)
- [Enforcing Hard Constraints with Soft Barriers: Safe Reinforcement Learning in Unknown Stochastic Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15090/) (2022)
- [Non-Exchangeable Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01262/) (2023)
- [Two-Timescale Gradient Descent Ascent Algorithms for Nonconvex Minimax Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11974/) (2024)
- [Reassessing How to Compare and Improve the Calibration of Machine Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04068/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A prediction that is both confident and wrong is a critical reliability failure because it can bypass abstention and human review precisely when the model is mistaken. Empirical risk minimization (ERM) controls average loss but not this failure directly, while calibration, uncertainty estimation, conformal risk control, and selective prediction methods target related reliability properties rather than bounding the joint failure event during training. We propose ReliableNet, which constrains the Joint Confident-Wrong (JCW) probability, the probability that a prediction is simultaneously confident and incorrect, below a user-specified risk budget α∈(0,1). We formulate this as a chance-constrained ERM problem, use a conservative smooth inner approximation whose population feasibility implies the original JCW constraint. Across four tabular and two image datasets, ReliableNet is the only method certified within the JCW budget for every dataset and seed in distribution, when compared against baselines spanning ERM, post-hoc calibration, conformal risk control, and selective prediction. Under demographic, ambiguity, spurious-correlation, novel-class, and covariate shifts, it achieves the lowest empirical JCW among the compared methods while remaining very competitive in accuracy, coverage, calibration, and selective prediction. Risk-coverage results further indicate that ReliableNet achieves better selective ranking than the benchmark methods on most datasets. Overall, ReliableNet provides a principled approach to trustworthy classification.