# VeinCast: Physics-Guided Dynamic Field Graphs with Graph-Conditioned Fusion for Global Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.09286 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.09286/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [FuXi: A cascade machine learning forecasting system for 15-day global weather forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12873/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10024/) (2024)
- [Prompt Federated Learning for Weather Forecasting: Toward Foundation Models on Meteorological Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.09152/) (2023)
- [OneForecast: A Universal Framework for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00338/) (2025)
- [A Foundation Model for the Earth System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13063/) (2024)
- [Generalizing Weather Forecast to Fine-grained Temporal Scales via Physics-AI Hybrid Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13796/) (2024)
- [EWMoE: An effective model for global weather forecasting with mixture-of-experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.06004/) (2024)
- [ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09734/) (2025)
- [STCast: Adaptive Boundary Alignment for Global and Regional Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25210/) (2025)
- [EMFormer: Efficient Multi-Scale Transformer for Accumulative Context Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01194/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [WeatherDiagFlow: Evidence-Grounded Radar Nowcasting with Diagnostic Flow Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.29772/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Global medium-range weather forecasting requires modeling structured yet state-dependent interactions among heterogeneous atmospheric fields. Existing data-driven models largely learn these interactions implicitly, whereas equation-level physical constraints may inherit approximation and model-form biases. We present VeinCast, a physics-guided dynamic field graph and graph-conditioned fusion framework that jointly forecasts 69 surface and upper-air fields. Within each local window, its Physics-Guided Dynamic Field Graph combines predefined atmospheric relations with state-dependent Top-K residual edges and adapts Earth-window attention using the resulting graph context. Graph-Conditioned Latent Fusion further employs graph context and source-node centrality to guide field-to-latent aggregation, while bounded feedback preserves field-specific information. On the 1.5^circ ERA5 benchmark, VeinCast demonstrates competitive forecasting performance across all 69 meteorological fields at lead times of up to 14 days, compared with representative global weather forecasting models including FuXi, Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, FengWu, and ARROW. Ablations confirm that the two modules provide complementary gains, demonstrating the effectiveness of relational-level physical guidance for data-driven weather forecasting.