# Unsure but Certain: Uncovering the Representation-Confidence Gap in Diffusion Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.08791 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.08791/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Discrete and text diffusion, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 28 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Discrete and text diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/discrete-and-text-diffusion/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

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- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [PIQA: Reasoning about Physical Commonsense in Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11641/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Unsupervised Data Augmentation for Consistency Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.12848/) (2019)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Virtual Adversarial Training: A Regularization Method for Supervised and Semi-Supervised Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.03976/) (2017)
- [Are NLP Models really able to Solve Simple Math Word Problems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07191/) (2021)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03827/) (2022)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [Discrete Diffusion Modeling by Estimating the Ratios of the Data Distribution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16834/) (2023)
- [Is BERT Really Robust? A Strong Baseline for Natural Language Attack on Text Classification and Entailment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11932/) (2019)
- [Regularizing Neural Networks by Penalizing Confident Output Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1701.06548/) (2017)
- [Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09437/) (2020)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [R-Drop: Regularized Dropout for Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.14448/) (2021)
- [Latent Adversarial Training Improves Robustness to Persistent Harmful Behaviors in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15549/) (2024)
- [Combating Adversarial Misspellings with Robust Word Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11268/) (2019)
- [InfoBERT: Improving Robustness of Language Models from An Information Theoretic Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02329/) (2020)
- [Robust Encodings: A Framework for Combating Adversarial Typos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.01229/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Diffusion language models use broad context to create text, suggesting they might handle input noise better than standard models. Testing reveals this is only partially true. Internally, diffusion models detect text errors highly accurately. Externally, their reported certainty ignores this signal. As accuracy drops due to noise, confidence stays near its maximum and the ability to correctly rank answers degrades toward random chance. We call this mismatch the representation confidence gap. The visible concentration of high certainty scores is a misleading surface symptom. Standard math adjustments remove this concentration but fail to fix the underlying loss of ranking order. This ranking deficit favors standard models under noisy conditions and resists common remedies. Matching training recovers accuracy but not ranking, while score recalibration and input level error signals cannot reorder the final answers. However, the information needed to properly evaluate an answer survives in the hidden states. A lightweight extraction tool uses this signal to improve ranking. This approach is highly efficient because it leaves the base model completely frozen and requires zero additional text generation steps. We present this tool to prove the signal exists, while clearly noting its limits. Ultimately, certainty reliability is a more pressing limit than overall accuracy under noisy conditions.