# From Uncertainty to Failure Attribution: Self-Diagnosing Models for Failure Attribution under Distribution Shift

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.07953 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.07953/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 13 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04606/) (2018)
- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [Understanding Failures in Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06908/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Distribution shift poses a significant challenge to the robustness of machine learning models, but the current solutions only aim to detect out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and predict uncertainty levels. We introduce a problem setting for failure attribution under distribution shift, which enables the models not only to detect OOD samples, but also to find out the reason for their failure. The solution we propose is called self-diagnosing models, which are capable of jointly learning predictive output, predictive uncertainty, and a failure attribution signal. In particular, we use the failure attribution vector, produced by a neural network, which provides a structured representation of predictive unreliability by distinguishing four different types of failures: covariance shift, semantic shift, noise corruption, and adversarial perturbation. In other words, we move from scalar uncertainty towards failure identification. For training the model, we introduce a consistency regularizer that encourages consistency between uncertainty and failure attribution predictions. Moreover, to be able to evaluate the model on its ability to find the reasons for failure, we construct several distribution shift benchmarks with predefined mechanisms for generating distribution shifts.