# SVI-DAG: A Structured Variational Inference Approach to Bayesian Causal Discovery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04930 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.04930/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 38 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 38)

- [Categorical Reparameterization with Gumbel-Softmax](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01144/) (2016)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.00712/) (2016)
- [DAGs with NO TEARS: Continuous Optimization for Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01422/) (2018)
- [Neural Spline Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04032/) (2019)
- [Stein Variational Gradient Descent: A General Purpose Bayesian Inference Algorithm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.04471/) (2016)
- [DAG-GNN: DAG Structure Learning with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10098/) (2019)
- [Causal Discovery with Continuous Additive Noise Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1309.6779/) (2013)
- [Advances in Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05597/) (2017)
- [Gradient-Based Neural DAG Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02226/) (2019)
- [D'ya like DAGs? A Survey on Structure Learning and Causal Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.02582/) (2021)
- [On the Role of Sparsity and DAG Constraints for Learning Linear DAGs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10201/) (2020)
- [Bayesian Structure Learning with Generative Flow Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13903/) (2022)
- [DAGMA: Learning DAGs via M-matrices and a Log-Determinant Acyclicity Characterization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.08037/) (2022)
- [DiBS: Differentiable Bayesian Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.11839/) (2021)
- [Amortized Causal Discovery: Learning to Infer Causal Graphs from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10833/) (2020)
- [D-VAE: A Variational Autoencoder for Directed Acyclic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.11088/) (2019)
- [Amortized Inference for Causal Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.12934/) (2022)
- [Masked Gradient-Based Causal Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.08527/) (2019)
- [Causal Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.09141/) (2017)
- [Superintelligent Agents Pose Catastrophic Risks: Can Scientist AI Offer a Safer Path?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.15657/) (2025)
- [BCD Nets: Scalable Variational Approaches for Bayesian Causal Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.02761/) (2021)
- [A Graph Autoencoder Approach to Causal Structure Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.07420/) (2019)
- [DAGs with No Curl: An Efficient DAG Structure Learning Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07197/) (2021)
- [Joint Bayesian Inference of Graphical Structure and Parameters with a Single Generative Flow Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19366/) (2023)
- [Differentiable DAG Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.08509/) (2022)
- [Causal Structure Learning: a Combinatorial Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01152/) (2022)
- [Variational Causal Networks: Approximate Bayesian Inference over Causal Structures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07635/) (2021)
- [Fast Scalable and Accurate Discovery of DAGs Using the Best Order Score Search and Grow-Shrink Trees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17679/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Bayesian causal discovery seeks to determine the posterior distribution of causal theories, which are interpreted as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that explain the observed data. The resulting posterior allows systematic reasoning regarding epistemic uncertainty within these theories. Nonetheless, finding such graphs is difficult due to identifiability problems and limited observational data. Furthermore, precisely approximating posterior over graphs is challenging given vast range of potential DAGs. Recent Bayesian approaches have addressed some of these challenges, yet they remain limited as they fail to encode dependencies between edges, and lack principled ways to incorporate domain knowledge as inductive biases during the search process. To overcome these limitations, we propose SVI-DAG, a structured variational inference approach to Bayesian causal discovery using observational data and prior beliefs that uses normalizing flows to model dependencies between edges, supporting expressive and multimodal posterior learning over DAGs. To mitigate mode seeking behaviour in evidence lower bound optimization and promote mode coverage, we use stein variational gradient descent to update the node potentials using a kernel in acyclicity space. We evaluate SVI-DAG against 5 state-of-the-art Bayesian DAG learning methods and demonstrate competitive performance in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty quantification.