# Causal Evidence Extraction and Triangulation in Crisis Reports using Large Language Models: A ReliefWeb-based Study

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.04576 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.04576/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Aug 2026.

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## Abstract (arXiv)

Humanitarian reports are long, noisy, and multi-topic, making it difficult to consolidate decision-relevant causal evidence. We present a ReliefWeb study (2000-2024) and a two-stage Large Language Model (LLM) pipeline that extracts structured intervention-outcome records with direction and strength attributes. Query-conditioned extraction restricts output to a specified intervention class, reducing retrieval-induced over-extraction, while snippet grounding links each relation to supporting text for auditability and classification. In an expert-annotated dataset of 100 reports, the best closed-source LLM achieved a weighted F1 score of 90.73% with strong cost-efficiency, while Llama-3.1-8B with supervised fine-tuning reached 94.15% weighted F1 score. We further propose context-preserving triangulation that aggregates strength-weighted evidence within disaster×source cells, applies Laplace smoothing and equally weights cells to quantify cross-context convergence via a Level-of-Evidence score. Applied to cash assistance, food-related outcomes show strong positive convergence (LoE=0.865) and stable long-horizon trajectories.