# Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction: Bridging Long Horizons via Dynamical Guidance

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03521 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03521/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 29 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 29 of 29)

- [End-to-End Object Detection with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.12872/) (2020)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [Motion Transformer with Global Intention Localization and Local Movement Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.13508/) (2022)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [MotionDiffuser: Controllable Multi-Agent Motion Prediction using Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03083/) (2023)
- [Scene Transformer: A unified architecture for predicting multiple agent trajectories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08417/) (2021)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06653/) (2021)
- [Stochastic Multiple Choice Learning for Training Diverse Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.07839/) (2016)
- [GoRela: Go Relative for Viewpoint-Invariant Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02545/) (2022)
- [Trajeglish: Traffic Modeling as Next-Token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.04535/) (2023)
- [LAformer: Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving with Lane-Aware Scene Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13933/) (2023)
- [Identifying Driver Interactions via Conditional Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09959/) (2021)
- [ADAPT: Efficient Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.14187/) (2023)
- [HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06351/) (2024)
- [SmartRefine: A Scenario-Adaptive Refinement Framework for Efficient Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11492/) (2024)
- [BAT: Behavior-Aware Human-Like Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06371/) (2023)
- [Path-Aware Graph Attention for HD Maps in Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13772/) (2022)
- [Bootstrap Motion Forecasting With Self-Consistent Constraints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05859/) (2022)
- [C2F-TP: A Coarse-to-Fine Denoising Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.13231/) (2024)
- [ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09734/) (2025)
- [Bus-Conditioned Zero-Shot Trajectory Generation via Task Arithmetic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13071/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Forecasting precise future motion of surrounding agents is essential for reliable autonomous vehicles. However, as the demand for longer prediction horizons increases, existing endpoint-completion or iterative-refine methods increasingly struggle with weak guidance and compounding errors. To tackle the long-horizon prediction challenge, we propose Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction (PCTP). By introducing ``pivots'' and focusing on predicting pivot points along extended trajectories, we divide the long-term prediction task into short-term sub-tasks at various scales. Specifically, PCTP decouples the long-term trajectory predicting process into two processes: pivot prediction and pivot-based trajectory refinement. The pivot prediction process aims to utilize global map context and agent-to-agent interactions to identify these ``pivot points'', while the pivot-based trajectory refinement process focuses on local map details and refines the short-term trajectory based on predicted ``pivot points''. Compared with existing methods, PCTP provides more intermediate guidance while reducing compounding errors. Moreover, PCTP is a flexible approach that can be integrated into most state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Experimental results show that PCTP improves the prediction accuracy of leading models on both Argoverse I and Argoverse II datasets with minimal impact on model size. Specifically, PCTP combined with QCNet outperforms all published ensemble-free methods on the Argoverse II leaderboard at submission.