# DUD: Decoupled Update Dynamics for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03411 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03411/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [BERTScore: Evaluating Text Generation with BERT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09675/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [SQuAD: 100,000+ Questions for Machine Comprehension of Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.05250/) (2016)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Locating and Editing Factual Associations in GPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.05262/) (2022)
- [Gemma 2: Improving Open Language Models at a Practical Size](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00118/) (2024)
- [Transformer Feed-Forward Layers Are Key-Value Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14913/) (2020)
- [The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in Large Language Model Representations of True/False Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06824/) (2023)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [Lookback Lens: Detecting and Mitigating Contextual Hallucinations in Large Language Models Using Only Attention Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07071/) (2024)
- [ICR Probe: Tracking Hidden State Dynamics for Reliable Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.16488/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet traditional probability-based metrics often fail to capture the model's true epistemic state. While recent mechanistic approaches leverage hidden state dynamics, they typically aggregate residual stream updates, conflating the distinct roles of parametric memory (Feed-Forward Networks) and contextual processing (Attention). We argue that this aggregation obscures fine-grained mechanistic conflicts, such as memory-context misalignment, that are fundamental indicators of uncertainty. To address this, we introduce Decoupled Update Dynamics (DUD), a framework that explicitly decouples FFN and Attention contributions via noise-induced causal interventions. By quantifying the independent restoration capabilities of each module, we construct a dual-stream dynamic profile that captures the model's internal fragility. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DUD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both uncertainty estimation and calibration, while exhibiting superior cross-dataset generalization, validating decoupled dynamics as a robust proxy for model faithfulness.