# Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.03339 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03339/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [AutoGen: Enabling Next-Gen LLM Applications via Multi-Agent Conversation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08155/) (2023)
- [CALF: Aligning LLMs for Time Series Forecasting via Cross-modal Fine-Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07300/) (2024)
- [From News to Forecast: Integrating Event Analysis in LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting with Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17515/) (2024)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [Universal Time-Series Representation Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.03717/) (2024)
- [A Survey of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) in Financial Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15909/) (2024)
- [From Text to Map: A System Dynamics Bot for Constructing Causal Loop Diagrams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11400/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Enterprise forecasting increasingly relies on autonomous agents that interpret documents, search for data, generate code, and revise models. While this autonomy helps build adaptive forecasting pipelines, it also makes it difficult for practitioners to inspect why a forecast changed, which evidence supported the change, and how data and modeling choices were revised. We present TraceMAS, an interactive demo system for traceable multi-agent forecasting. TraceMAS organizes agent outputs around two causal-loop representations: an Ideal Causal Loop Diagram (Ideal CLD), which captures key factors and their causal relations extracted from domain documents, and a Data-Grounded Causal Loop Diagram (Data-Grounded CLD), which links those factors to internal variables, external data, or documented proxies. The Data-Grounded CLD guides feature construction and model design while preserving the connection between textual evidence, data choices, and model revisions. We demonstrate TraceMAS on crude oil price forecasting. The demo interface allows users to compare forecasting iterations, inspect agent-level revisions, explore causal maps, review feature-data mappings and model architecture, and connect scenario forecasts to market narratives. This demonstration shows how autonomous forecasting agents can retain flexibility while making the evidence-to-forecast process inspectable.