# Uncertainty Is Not Enough: Value-of-Information Routing for Mixtures of LoRA Experts

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.02528 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.02528/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [HellaSwag: Can a Machine Really Finish Your Sentence?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07830/) (2019)
- [PIQA: Reasoning about Physical Commonsense in Natural Language](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11641/) (2019)
- [Can a Suit of Armor Conduct Electricity? A New Dataset for Open Book Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.02789/) (2018)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [MixLoRA: Enhancing Large Language Models Fine-Tuning with LoRA-based Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15159/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Large Language Models with LM-Polygraph](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15627/) (2024)
- [A Unified Approach to Routing and Cascading for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10347/) (2024)
- [Learning to Route LLMs with Confidence Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13284/) (2024)
- [BEST-Route: Adaptive LLM Routing with Test-Time Optimal Compute](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.22716/) (2025)
- [FlyLoRA: Boosting Task Decoupling and Parameter Efficiency via Implicit Rank-Wise Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08396/) (2025)
- [AdaMoLE: Fine-Tuning Large Language Models with Adaptive Mixture of Low-Rank Adaptation Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00361/) (2024)
- [Utility-Diversity Aware Online Batch Selection for LLM Supervised Fine-tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.16882/) (2025)
- [LD-MoLE: Learnable Dynamic Routing for Mixture of LoRA Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25684/) (2025)
- [DynMoLE: Boosting Mixture of LoRA Experts Fine-Tuning with a Hybrid Routing Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.00661/) (2025)
- [Early-Exit Neural Networks with Nested Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05931/) (2023)
- [FRAME: Learning the Adaptation Domain with a Mixture of Fractional-Fourier Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.00162/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Cross-Entropy Guided Routing in Mixture-of-Experts Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.37751/) (2026)
- [Score the Update, Not the Token: Descent-Aligned Routing for Combinatorial LoRA Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00493/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Mixtures of low-rank adaptation experts increase parameter-efficient capacity by routing each input through a subset of adapters. Recent dynamic routers activate more experts when the router or prediction is uncertain. This rule silently equates uncertainty with useful additional computation: an uncertain example may contain complementary, unqueried expert evidence, but it may instead remain ambiguous after every expert agrees. We formulate routing as certified value-of-information allocation. VI-MoLE learns the counterfactual risk remaining after each expert prefix, converts these predictions into simultaneous upper-risk certificates on held-out calibration data, and spends a global adapter budget on the token--layer action with the largest certified marginal risk reduction per unit cost. A terminal certificate then decides whether to answer or abstain. Unlike an uncertainty gate, this procedure distinguishes present ambiguity from recoverable and residual risk. We prove simultaneous certificate validity, optimal greedy allocation under diminishing certified gains, and allocation regret under value-estimation error. The evaluation protocol tests matched-compute accuracy, certificate coverage, risk--coverage, distribution shift, and tail latency against fixed and dynamic MoE-LoRA routers.