# ST-LoRA: Single Trajectory LoRA Ensemble for Uncertainty Aware Agricultural Segmentation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01530 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01530/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 63 of its 108 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Aug 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 63)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14314/) (2023)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [CutMix: Regularization Strategy to Train Strong Classifiers with Localizable Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.04899/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Spectral Normalization for Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05957/) (2018)
- [Transformer Feed-Forward Layers Are Key-Value Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14913/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Per-Pixel Classification is Not All You Need for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.06278/) (2021)
- [Semantic Understanding of Scenes through the ADE20K Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.05442/) (2016)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Towards a Unified View of Parameter-Efficient Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.04366/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Quantization Methods for Efficient Neural Network Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.13630/) (2021)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [Attention is Not All You Need: Pure Attention Loses Rank Doubly Exponentially with Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03404/) (2021)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [BatchEnsemble: An Alternative Approach to Efficient Ensemble and Lifelong Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06715/) (2020)
- [Snapshot Ensembles: Train 1, get M for free](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.00109/) (2017)
- [LoRA Learns Less and Forgets Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09673/) (2024)
- [Deep Deterministic Uncertainty: A Simple Baseline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11582/) (2021)
- [Training independent subnetworks for robust prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.06610/) (2020)
- [A Unified Survey on Anomaly, Novelty, Open-Set, and Out-of-Distribution Detection: Solutions and Future Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14051/) (2021)
- [MoEfication: Transformer Feed-forward Layers are Mixtures of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01786/) (2021)
- [A Tutorial on Principal Component Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.1100/) (2014)
- [Neural Architecture Search: Insights from 1000 Papers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08727/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reliable decision support in digital agriculture requires not only accurate predictions but also well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, particularly for dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation. Ensembles provide strong uncertainty quantification but are computationally and memory demanding, while single-model approximations often sacrifice uncertainty quality. We propose ST-LoRA, a parameter-efficient ensemble that builds diverse members from a single training trajectory by combining Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) with snapshot ensembling. All members share a frozen pretrained backbone and differ only in lightweight low-rank adapters, which sharply reduces trainable parameters, checkpoint storage, and I/O overhead. We evaluate SegFormer, Mask2Former, and EoMT on GrowliFlower-L (cauliflower, open field) and BUP20 (sweet pepper, glasshouse), covering in-distribution performance, calibration under covariate shift, and near- and far-out-of-distribution (OoD) detection, with BUTom21 (tomato) as near-OoD data. Extensive ablations show that feed-forward layers, not attention projections, are the critical LoRA target for dense prediction, and that the scaling ratio α/r governs an accuracy--calibration trade-off. Against full-rank snapshot ensembles, ST-LoRA is competitive in segmentation quality, with architecture-dependent training time and energy savings. Against MC Dropout, DDU, and six post-hoc calibrators, it achieves the strongest far-OoD image-level detection and near-OoD pixel-level localization with low cross-seed variance, although full-rank ensembles remain better calibrated. These results show that LoRA-based ensembling offers a compelling efficiency--performance trade-off for agricultural vision systems.