# Climate-Dyna Deep Hedging for XVAs: Model-Based Reinforcement Learning, Residual Climate HVA, and Hedge-Instrument Discovery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01208 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01208/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Adversarial robustness and RL in finance, one of 15 directions in Deep reinforcement learning methods.
- Builds on 6 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Aug 2026.

## Placed in

- Deep reinforcement learning methods / [Adversarial robustness and RL in finance](https://mlsanity.com/deeprl/adversarial-robustness-and-rl-in-finance/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [Deep Hedging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03042/) (2018)
- [QLBS: Q-Learner in the Black-Scholes(-Merton) Worlds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.04609/) (2017)
- [Adversarial Deep Hedging: Learning to Hedge without Price Process Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13217/) (2023)
- [Kernel-U-Net: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting using Custom Kernels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.01479/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

For a trading desk, residual climate hedging valuation adjustment (HVA) is the climate cost left after its inherited hedge and any admissible overlay have been taken into account; it therefore cannot be inferred from a stand-alone stress loss. We obtain this residual by comparing paired climate-on and baseline worlds and reoptimizing the overlay for each hedge universe, which also turns hedge-instrument discovery into a valuation problem: an instrument is useful to the extent that it lowers the optimized residual cost. The linear-Gaussian case has an exact finite-horizon Riccati solution; Climate-Dyna starts from that hedge and learns the remaining nonlinear correction from paired world-model rollouts, with an independent gate deciding whether to deploy the update. In a public-data-calibrated semi-synthetic EU ETS study, crediting the inherited hedge lowers the mean climate charge from 1.517 to 0.906, and the learned overlay lowers it to 0.831 against a 0.821 exact floor; residual Dyna cuts regret by 93% relative to replay with one quarter as many trajectories, while adaptation from only 25 target transitions retains 60.7% of the exact-assisted gain.