# Counting the Cost of War Under Satellite Embargo: Zero-Shot Estimation of Impacted Infrastructure

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00119 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.00119/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Segment Anything](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02643/) (2023)
- [SAM 2: Segment Anything in Images and Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00714/) (2024)
- [Towards Robust Monocular Depth Estimation: Mixing Datasets for Zero-shot Cross-dataset Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.01341/) (2019)
- [Depth Anything: Unleashing the Power of Large-Scale Unlabeled Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10891/) (2024)
- [SAM 3: Segment Anything with Concepts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.16719/) (2025)
- [Depth Anything 3: Recovering the Visual Space from Any Views](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.10647/) (2025)
- [Segment Everything Everywhere All at Once](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06718/) (2023)
- [Depth Pro: Sharp Monocular Metric Depth in Less Than a Second](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02073/) (2024)
- [LVLM-COUNT: Enhancing the Counting Ability of Large Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00686/) (2024)
- [Seeing but Not Thinking: Routing Distraction in Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.08541/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Rapid estimation of impacted structures - critical for conflict-zone humanitarian response - is frequently hindered by post-strike satellite data embargoes and imagery blackouts. We bypass this operational bottleneck by reframing impacted building mapping as a zero-shot geometric projection task on archival, pre-strike maps. Using coordinate and incident text from LiveUAMap and ArcGIS, Large Language Models extract weapon payloads (W) to project kinetic blast perimeters via Hopkinson-Cranz scaling (R_base = Z * W^(1/3)). To count exposed structures within these zones without post-strike imagery, we introduce two technical innovations: Adaptive Field-of-View to eliminate resolution (zoom) bias in 2D segmentation (SAMGeo), and 2.5D pseudo-height depth maps combined with segmentation masks to help Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) resolve overlapping, dense rooftops. Evaluated on 2026 Middle East conflict data, depth-augmented LVLMs dramatically outperform traditional segmentation in congested urban centers. This establishes a powerful hybrid paradigm for zero-shot crisis mapping: ultra-fast 2D segmentation for sparse rural zones, and depth-augmented LVLMs for dense urban environments.