# Kalman Meets Curriculum: Efficient Dynamic Prompt Selection for Adaptive RL Finetuning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.27610 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.27610/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 30 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 30)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [OlympiadBench: A Challenging Benchmark for Promoting AGI with Olympiad-Level Bilingual Multimodal Scientific Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14008/) (2024)
- [Qwen2.5-Math Technical Report: Toward Mathematical Expert Model via Self-Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12122/) (2024)
- [Safe RLHF: Safe Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.12773/) (2023)
- [SimpleRL-Zoo: Investigating and Taming Zero Reinforcement Learning for Open Base Models in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18892/) (2025)
- [Process Reinforcement through Implicit Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01456/) (2025)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [Open-Reasoner-Zero: An Open Source Approach to Scaling Up Reinforcement Learning on the Base Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24290/) (2025)
- [Inter-GPS: Interpretable Geometry Problem Solving with Formal Language and Symbolic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04165/) (2021)
- [VAPO: Efficient and Reliable Reinforcement Learning for Advanced Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05118/) (2025)
- [RLHF Workflow: From Reward Modeling to Online RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07863/) (2024)
- [Secrets of RLHF in Large Language Models Part I: PPO](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.04964/) (2023)
- [ProRL: Prolonged Reinforcement Learning Expands Reasoning Boundaries in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24864/) (2025)
- [LIMR: Less is More for RL Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11886/) (2025)
- [Act Only When It Pays: Efficient Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning via Selective Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02177/) (2025)
- [Self-Evolving Curriculum for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14970/) (2025)
- [Online Difficulty Filtering for Reasoning Oriented Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03380/) (2025)
- [Curriculum Reinforcement Learning from Easy to Hard Tasks Improves LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06632/) (2025)
- [Concise Reasoning via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05185/) (2025)
- [Can Prompt Difficulty be Online Predicted for Accelerating RL Finetuning of Reasoning Models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04632/) (2025)
- [SARI: Structured Audio Reasoning via Curriculum-Guided Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15900/) (2025)
- [Skywork-R1V3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06167/) (2025)
- [BOTS: A Unified Framework for Bayesian Online Task Selection in LLM Reinforcement Finetuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.26374/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Rollout Efficiency in Reinforcement Learning for Reasoning Large Language Models: A Taxonomy and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.25463/) (2026)
- [Prompts Live on an Arc: Gaussian Curricula in Fisher--Rao Coordinates for Rollout-Efficient GRPO](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.38018/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning (RL) finetuning significantly enhances the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), yet its effectiveness critically depends on selecting prompts of appropriate difficulty for the current policy. This is challenging because prompt difficulty evolves throughout training. Existing online methods therefore face a trade-off: evaluation-based approaches are accurate but expensive, while prediction-based approaches are efficient but typically assume stationary difficulty, making them ill-suited to RL's non-stationary training dynamics. To address these issues, we propose a Kalman-Guided Prompt Selection method (KGPS), which reformulates prompt selection as a dynamic state estimation problem rather than static difficulty prediction. KGPS models each prompt's latent success rate in logit space using a linear-Gaussian state-space model, with process noise coupled to the magnitude of policy updates so that uncertainty increases when the policy changes more substantially. A Kalman filter then maintains a calibrated Gaussian posterior over prompt difficulty, and prompts are selected by maximizing a posterior-expected training utility that favors intermediate-difficulty prompts while naturally revisiting uncertain ones. The resulting procedure is adaptive to policy drift and requires no additional rollouts beyond standard policy training. Extensive experiments across mathematics, planning, and geometry reasoning benchmarks, as well as multiple RL algorithms, show that KGPS consistently improves both final accuracy and rollout efficiency over strong baselines, establishing state-of-the-art performance among online prompt selection methods. For example, on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-7B, KGPS uses 83% fewer rollouts than DS while even improving the average performance by 0.12 point across six math reasoning benchmarks.